Happy New Year!

Happy Rosh Hashana to all!



(link)

Senate Conventional Wisdom Chart

Here's how the various free rankings on the web rate each race for Senator this year. Yes, I'm including myself in the conventional wisdom. It's my blog. I can do what I want. Here you go:

Republican Seats	Sabato	Cook	CQ Politics	MyDD	Casual Soapbox
IN-Lugar	Solid R	Solid R	Solid R	Solid R	Solid R
ME-Snowe	Solid R	Solid R	Solid R	Solid R	Solid R
MS-Lott	Solid R	Solid R	Solid R	Solid R	Solid R
NV-Ensign	Solid R	Solid R	Solid R	Solid R	Solid R
TX-Hutchison	Solid R	Solid R	Solid R	Solid R	Solid R
UT-Hatch	Solid R	Solid R	Solid R	Solid R	Solid R
WY-Thomas	Solid R	Solid R	Solid R	Solid R	Solid R
AZ-Kyl	Likely R	Leans R	Likely R	Likely R	Leans R
VA-Allen	Leans R	Leans R	Leans R	Leans R	Leans R
MO-Talent	Tossup	Tossup	Leans R	Tossup	Tossup
TN OPEN	Tossup	Tossup	Leans R	Tossup	Tossup
OH-DeWine	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup
RI-Chafee	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup	Leans D	Tossup
MT-Burns	Leans D	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup
PA-Santorum	Leans D	Tossup	Leans D	Leans D	Tossup

Democratic Seats	Sabato	Cook	CQ Politics	MyDD	Casual Soapbox
WI-Kohl	Solid D	Solid D	Solid D	Solid D	Solid D
NY-Clinton	Solid D	Solid D	Solid D	Solid D	Solid D
NM-Bingaman	Solid D	Solid D	Solid D	Solid D	Solid D
ND-Conrad	Solid D	Solid D	Solid D	Solid D	Solid D
MA-Kennedy	Solid D	Solid D	Solid D	Solid D	Solid D
HI-Akaka	Solid D	Solid D	Solid D	Solid D	Solid D
DE-Carper	Solid D	Solid D	Solid D	Solid D	Solid D
CA-Feinstein	Solid D	Solid D	Solid D	Solid D	Solid D
FL-Nelson	Solid D	Solid D	Likely D	Solid D	Solid D
CT OPEN	Solid D	Solid D	Likely D	Solid D	Likely D*
WV-Byrd	Solid D	Likely D	Solid D	Solid D	Solid D
VT OPEN	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	Solid D	Solid D
NE-Nelson	Leans D	Leans D	Leans D	Solid D	Likely D
MI-Stabenow	Leans D	Leans D	Likely D	Likely D	Leans D
WA-Cantwell	Leans D	Leans D	Leans D	Likely D	Leans D
MD OPEN	Leans D	Leans D	Leans D	Leans D	Leans D
MN OPEN	Leans D	Leans D	Tossup	Likely D	Leans D
NJ-Menendez	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup

*The Connecticut seat will be Democratic unless Lieberman wins as an independent and caucuses with the Republicans. Republican candidate Alan Schlesinger has no chance to win.

Sabato's Crystal Ball
Cook Political Report
CQ Politics
MyDD
Casual Soapbox

AZ-Sen: A Closer Race

A new Survey USA poll shows a narrower race for Republican Jon Kyl's Arizona senate seat than before:

Jon Kyl (R) 48%
Jim Pederson (D) 43%

If confirmed, that would put this race into the same category as the Virginia, Missouri and Tennessee races -- competetive with a slightly Republican tilt. Demcorats will need two from that category to gain control of the Senate, along with seats in Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Montana, and Ohio that Democrats look set to pick up. While still unlikely, it's looking less impossible right now than I would have thought.

Anti-Republican Election

Stuart Rothenberg, that incarnation of conventional political wisdom, takes issue with those who would call the upcoming election an anti-incumbent election:

Republican incumbents are in trouble not because they are incumbents, but because they are Republicans.

This election isn’t really about agendas. Sure, Democrats have something called their “New Direction,” but most voters aren’t regarding November primarily as a choice between two visions or two ideologies. No, it’s about sending a message to the president and to Congress that they aren’t happy — specifically with the Iraq War, but more generally as well.

Republican National Committee Chairman Ken Mehlman is quite correct when he says Republicans will do better when the election is a choice rather than a referendum. Unfortunately for him, that’s not likely to happen until 2008.

So what about the defeats of Sen. Joe Lieberman (D-Conn.), Reps. Cynthia McKinney (D-Ga.) and Joe Schwarz (R-Mich.), and even Alaska Gov. Frank Murkowski (R)? The answer is simple. Each lost for specific reasons, not because of a trend. It isn’t their incumbency that unites them. They lost because of their own voting records and style.

While it is true that voters are not particularly impressed with Congress in general or either of the two major parties, the midterm elections have developed into a referendum on the president. Republicans may well succeed in minimizing the damage in November by localizing elections and re-electing incumbents, but there is no indication that voters will send a message of dissatisfaction with all incumbents in the fall.

That means that all but a handful of Democratic House incumbents can rest easy.

This is the first time in my conscious memory of political events (basically since 1992) that being a Republican was a net negative in a nationwide election. America looks poised to shift to the left for a few years.

RIP Ann Richards

"Poor George. He can't help it. He was born with a silver foot in his mouth." -- Ann Richards at the 1988 Democratic Convention.

Ann Richards, former Democratic governor of Texas, has passed away at the age of 73. Read the whole San Antonio Express article. There's so much there about her, I don't know where to begin.

She was governor for one term - 1990-1994, and was the first female governor of Texas since Ma Ferguson. She was defeated for re-election in a landslide Republican year by none other than George W. Bush, now our president.

Even during my Republican phase (Sep-Dec 1994), I still knew Texas had something special in Ann Richards. She was the only Democrat I voted for that year. I went to a campaign rally in the Texas Union where she spoke, and she was truly a powerful speaker. I only wish I had gotten the opportunity to speak to her in person, and to tell her how great it was the way she stood up for women and minorities, and in such a uniquely Texan way. Boy she sure had a way with words like few other politicians I've seen.

Rest in peace, Ann Richards.

RI-Sen: Chafee Survives Primary... Barely

Republican Senator Lincoln Chafee seems to have just barely survived his primary against conservative Cranston mayor Stephen Laffey:

Chafee (R) 54%
Laffey (R) 46%

Too bad. Not that I dislike Chafee particularly. It's just that had Laffey won, this seat would have been a virtual Democratic lock. Chafee, on the other hand, has up to a 50-50 chance to hold his seat this year. It should be a close race with Democratic nominee Sheldon Whitehouse.

TX-Gov, TX-Sen Zogby Polls: Closing the Gap

If Zogby Interactive is to be believed -- a big if mind you -- Democrats are closing the gaps in both the races for Texas governor and senator.

TX-Sen:

Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) 45.2%
Barbara Ann Radnofsky (D) 36.8%

TX-Gov:

Rick Perry (R) 30.7%
Chris Bell (D) 25.3%
Kinky Friedman (I) 22.4%
Carole Keeton Strayhorn (I) 11.1%

These numbers are a lot nicer for Texas Democrats than any others I've seen. But Zogby Interactive has one big question mark around its numbers: participants in the poll are self-selecting. You can check out their methodology down at the bottom of the screen if you follow this link.

Another Reason to Love Brad Pitt

If his dashing good looks and 12 Monkeys aren't enough for you that is...

NEW YORK - Brad Pitt, ever the social activist, says he won't be marrying Angelina Jolie until the restrictions on who can marry whom are dropped.

"Angie and I will consider tying the knot when everyone else in the country who wants to be married is legally able," the 42-year-old actor reveals in Esquire magazine's October issue, on newsstands Sept. 19.

(Via the BCS Eagle, a newspaper that's a sentimental favorite of mine.)

A Whimsical Reverie

On the 5-year anniversary of 9/11, ABC plans to run a right-wing propaganda piece masquerading as a docudrama that blames Clinton for and absolves Bush of the government's failure to prevent the attack. Check out the Open Letter to ABC:

ABC/Disney plans to memorialize the fifth anniversary of 9/11 with a fictional docudrama called "The Path to 9/11". Written by an avowed right-wing activist, this work of fiction directly contradicts the accepted record of the 9/11 Commission Report. President Clinton and former administration officials were denied an advance copy; Rush Limbaugh and obscure right-wing bloggers saw it last week. ABC plans to distribute this docudrama to 100,000 educators across the country. We've set up this site to encourage ABC to change its strategy...

This is a serious mistake by ABC. They're going to end up antagonizing a lot of people if they run this. And there's a significant possibility the Clintons will be in the White House again in a few years. Amazingly, Disney's Chairman of the Board is former Democratic Senate Majority Leader George Mitchell. Think Progress thinks he'll make a good pressure point. What with Bill Clinton and the Democratic leadership in Congress making veiled threats against Disney, it should be obvious to ABC that Democrats take it seriously when the media shows its Republican nature and makes up stories that falsely portray Democrats as responsible for 9/11.

Honestly though, if John Aravosis of AmericaBlog is taking this one on (and he is), there's a good chance the pressure will work. That guy is amazing.

TX-23: Ciro Pulls a Perot

I know, I know. This is yesterday's news. But I hadn't mentioned it yet. So here it is.

Ciro Rodriguez pulled out of the race for Congress last Wednesday night in the newly redrawn TX-23 against Republican Rep. Henry Bonilla. Then, Friday, he jumped back in (CQ Politics):

In his statement Friday, Rodriguez said that “running for Congress takes considerable resources,” adding, “On Wednesday, I considered whether I should continue this race.” But, he said, he subsequently received “an outpouring of support” — “my phone has not stopped ringing” — from constituents “who have been asking me to continue and be their voice,” and that he would stay in the race on behalf of these backers.

The contest marks a second comeback bid for Rodriguez, who previously represented the adjacent 28th District from 1997 to 2005. Rodriguez lost his seat to Democrat Henry Cuellar in the 2004 primary and lost again in a primary rematch this March.

Dropping out and jumping back in to any race doesn't look good. It makes a candidate look indecisive and strange. I like Ciro Rodriguez a lot. I think he was a great congressman. And I think he's good on the issues. But I don't know about this... I remember another Texas politician who did an in-and-out routine like that: Ross Perot in 1992. He lost.

FL-Sen: Katharine Harris Wins!!!

It's official. Katharine Harris will be the Republican nominee for Senate in Florida. Her opponent, Democratic Senator Bill Nelson, probably held off opening the champagne, but just barely. Here's the latest poll from Rasmussen Reports on the race (Aug 28):

Bill Nelson (D) 57%
Katharine Harris (R) 34%

Not even close. Sorry folks. That race is all but over.

RIP Crocodile Hunter Steve Irwin

I already miss Steve Irwin -- more than I thought I would. It was amazing how he brought out an awe of nature in everybody who watched his show -- even for a single segment -- with his fearless adventuring. And he was a tireless advocate of conservation as well. All while doing what he loved best. Rest in peace, Steve Irwin, in a happy nest of crocodiles and poisonous vipers.

Nifty New Site

Mark Blumenthal of Mystery Pollster and Charles Franklin of Political Arithmetik have combined forces to create a fun new polling site: Pollster.com. They are collecting and charting polls in most of the close Senate and Governor races. The current situation in the Senate appears to be as follows, based on their "Last 5" average:

MT-Sen: Tester (D) 47% Burns (R) 44% - Democratic pickup
PA-Sen: Casey (D) 49% Santorum (R) 40% - Democratic pickup
OH-Sen: Brown (D) 46% DeWine (R) 40% - Democratic pickup
RI-Sen: Whitehouse (D) 42% Chafee (R) 40% - Democratic pickup
MO-Sen: Talent (R) 47% McCaskill (D) 45%
TN-Sen: Corker (R) 46% Ford (D) 42%
VA-Sen: Allen (R) 48% Webb (D) 42%
AZ-Sen: Kyl (R) 48% Pederson (D) 37%

MN-Sen: Klobuchar (D) 49% Kennedy (R) 40%
NJ-Sen: Menendez (D) 43% Kean (R) 40%
WA-Sen: Cantwell (D) 51% McGavick (R) 40%

I love poll aggregators... I'm such a geek...

Tactical Advice

Tom Schaller has some tactical advice for the Democrats:

Where’s Osama? The mastermind of the September 11 attacks is still at large five years later. This is a colossal failure Democrats have hesitated to point out relentlessly for fear that, were Osama bin Laden suddenly captured or killed, Bush and the Republicans would enjoy a huge partisan windfall. But they would anyway, so why hesitate? Democrats should do as the Republicans would: Wait until two or three weeks before the election and start asking why Osama bin Laden remains on the lamb. (The Bush-Cheney campaign held its 2004 closing message -- that America had not been attacked since 9/11 -- in reserve until the very end of the election.) Democrats might enlist folks like Wes Clark or Max Cleland to put the GOP on the defensive during the closing moments of 2006 by calling for a renewed international manhunt and asking repeatedly, “Where’s Osama?” It’s a question few Republican incumbents want to answer in the closing moments of Campaign 2006.

There was no tax cut. The Democratic critique of Bush’s tax policy is three-fold: One, the richest sliver of the population received the bulk of the cuts; two, lost revenues have increased the national debt; and, three, any windfalls the middle classes enjoyed are more than offset by rising health care costs, new state taxes and “fees,” higher consumer prices, and so on. Simply put, Democrats argue that Americans didn’t get much of a tax cut, what they got didn’t lessen their financial burdens, and they or their children will have to pay it back with interest. In a country where most Americans pay more in payroll taxes than income taxes, a concise and electorally audacious way to attack the Republicans on taxes is to assert, simply, there was no tax cut. Democrats could invite voters to pull out their federal tax forms from recent years and search for the savings. Most won’t find much, and those who do already overwhelmingly vote Republican.

Health-coverage solidarity. Instead of using the congressional health care plan, Ohio Representative and Democratic gubernatorial nominee Ted Strickland pays for his own health insurance, because he believes it’s wrong for constituents who are either uninsured or under-insured to pick up the tab for his coverage. Would any congressional candidate dare criticize Strickland’s personal ethic? Members of Congress enjoy steady pay raises and cushy benefits at a time when millions of Americans are experiencing stagnant wages and higher costs for health-care coverage -- if they are insured at all. To signal solidarity, Democratic incumbents and challengers should join Strickland in pledging to refuse the government’s health package, beginning January 2007, until they can fix the nation’s health care system. The vast majority can afford private insurance anyway.

Sponsor a New Orleans precinct. Hurricane-devastated New Orleans has almost the exact same number of precincts (443) as the combined number of House districts (425) and key, Republican-held Senate seats (seven) with a Democratic candidate filed to run in 2006. Some precincts suffered relatively mild damage from Katrina, others were devastated, but all were affected. To personalize the criticism of the administration’s bungled Katrina response, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee should familiarize each candidate with the specific details of the plight and progress of one New Orleans precinct. Americans wear colored bracelets to express solidarity with countless causes, so why not get Democratic nominees to wear Mardi Gras-inspired, gold-green-and-purple bracelets, each with the number of the precinct the candidate and her district are sponsoring? This would not only bring the nation’s commitment to rebuilding New Orleans into high relief, but every candidate would have a specific story to share and a vested stake in the city’s revival after re-taking majority control.

Fiscal lapel pins. Sadly, when Democrats on the Hill want to communicate, they still rely on the three P’s -- press release, press conference, and (National) Press Club event. In the age of the Blackberry, this is akin to using rotary phones. Rather than issue another white paper about Republicans’ fiscal chicanery which a few national reporters and a handful of voters will actually read, Hill Democrats should come up with three or four key numbers that epitomize big-government Republican budgeting: 0, for the number of spending bills Bush has vetoed; 4, representing the number of times the government has raised the national debt ceiling; or perhaps 300, for the billions of dollars thus far spent in Iraq. Take these numbers, put them on understated lapel pins, pass them out to every congressional candidate … and wait. National beat reporters and the local media will soon take notice. What they’ll discover is another neat visual, like the bracelets, around which to build a story about how Democrats across America are calling the Republicans to the mat for their fiscal recklessness.

All interesting ideas, and all offered in the place of in-depth explicit policy proposals. The struggle between on the one hand those who favor offering detailed solutions to problems and on the other those who favor not offering Republicans a change of topic from their own troubled policies has been a source of consternation among Democrats in the last year or so.

Another similar internal struggle Democrats are facing is between candidates who shy away from an unpopular party label (in their district or state), and partisans who seek to resuscitate the Democratic brand. The candidates see a weakened brand and abstain from using it except when absolutely necessary. Chris Bowers explains the partisan resuscitation argument here:

Someone needs to explain to me how Democrats plan to nationalize this election against Republicans without identifying themselves as Democrats. I might also need a refresher course on how people are going to develop a better image of the Democratic Party if our own candidates refuse to identify themselves as Democrats. As a third request, I would like someone to explain to me how Democratic congressional challengers plan to win without people being willing to press the "Democratic" button on November 7th. Virtually no challengers are going to manage higher name ID than incumbents this cycle, so in order to win back Congress we are going to have to rely on large numbers of people being willing to vote for the Democratic Party itself, rather than individual Democratic candidates. Not only is that never going to happen if our own candidates refuse to self-identify as Democrats, we can also see from Republican quotes that avoiding partisan self-identification altogether is exactly what Republicans want in this cycle. We can't win back congress unless we are willing to be partisans.

It seems to me that we absolutely can win back Congress both without partisanship, and without putting out any of our ideas in proposal form for Republicans to attack. But both would be short-sighted. It looks to me like Democrats are about to have a very good midterm election, and will likely retake one or both houses of Congress. But what then?

At that point, Democratis will be in power with no goodwill built up for the Democratic party itself, and little ability to claim a mandate for any particular initiative, having not told the people what they will do once elected.

Consider the Republicans' Contract With America from the leadup to the 1994 midterm elections. Few people had heard of it, and it made maybe a small impact on the election among those who had heard of it. But after the Republican victory, the document was both a unifying force for their party in the next Congress, and a public relations coup because it represented an agenda they could claim the people voted for.

Democrats don't have to be too specific in the ideas they put forward. And they don't have to mimic the Contract in form either. But they should put something out there that they can then point to and say, "The people voted for this." after the election. Because if they don't make their agenda public and then try to claim a mandate after the election, the people will withdraw their support very quickly.

Support for the party brand might keep their support though. Honestly, it is critical that Democrats build up some trust among the people. If they can do that, the people will be more forgiving of failure and more rewarding of success. And if people get used to voting for Democrats, the party will find it easier to both keep its popular support, and to keep its caucus unified.

None of this is to take away from any of Schaller's tactical ideas. It's just important to keep sight of the larger picture as well.

The Conventional Wisdom on the November Elections

From Reuters today, some quotes from establishment sorts on the November election (emphasis mine):

"I don't think the question any longer is can Democrats win control of Congress, it's can Republicans do anything to stop it?" said Amy Walter, House analyst for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report newsletter. "All the factors and issues are pushing so strongly against Republicans."
...

"It's too late to fix the national mood -- it's not going to be fixed," said Republican pollster Frank Luntz. "The major issues are not playing well for Republicans this year, and Republicans are not playing well with America this year."
...

"This looks like a classic sixth-year election," said University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato, who called the president's low approval ratings, hovering at about 40 percent, "the single best indicator for any mid-term election."

The conventional wisdom is not a guarantee of anything. It's just what insiders think of the political environment right now.