Casual Soapbox

Casual Soapbox is a blog, the purpose of which is to provide me with a venue to expound upon politics, popular culture, religion, humor, and any other topic that boils my blood. I'd love to say I have big plans for this site, but I don't, except to bloviate pompously, deprecate myself and others, practice my verbal skills, and pathetically imitate popular people I admire. So, if any of that appeals to you, this blog's for you!

Name:
Location: Austin, Texas, United States

He's just this guy, you know?

Thursday, July 27, 2006

Survey USA 50-State Poll

Survey USA's approval ratings of all U.S. Senators are out. Here are the approval/disapproval rating for those Senators running for re-election this fall:

Republicans
ME Olympia Snowe 72%/24%
MS Trent Lott 68%/28%
IN Richard Lugar 65%/29%
WY Craig Thomas 62%/29%
TX Kay Bailey Hutchison 60%/31%
UT Orrin Hatch 58%/37%
NV John Ensign 52%/38%
VA George Allen 51%/39%
MO Jim Talent 49%/44%
RI Lincoln Chafee 48%/46%
AZ Jon Kyl 47%/40%
OH Mike DeWine 45%/45%
PA Rick Santorum 43%/50%
MT Conrad Burns 37%/57%


Democrats
ND Kent Conrad 72%/23%
NE Ben Nelson 68%/27%
WV Robert Byrd 64%/33%
DE Tom Carper 62%/31%
NY Hillary Clinton 62%/36%
MA Edward Kennedy 59%/37%
NM Jeff Bingaman 58%/33%
CA Dianne Feinstein 57%/34%
WI Herb Kohl 57%/33%
CT Joseph Lieberman 54%/41%
HI Daniel Akaka 51%/43%
MI Debbie Stabenow 50%/39%
WA Maria Cantwell 49%/43%
FL Bill Nelson 48%/33%
NJ Robert Menendez 45%/39%


Those in red are under the magic 50% marker in approval. That's bad news for an incumbent. While the 6 Republicans under 50% are consistently considered the most endangered Republicans, Democrat Bill Nelson is considered safe now because of Katharine Harris magical mystical imploding campaign. So it's really 6-2 in terms of actual danger. I'm guessing at this point Democrats will pick up 4 seats in the Senate, not enough to gain control, sadly. But I think it's more likely they'll pick up more than 4 than it is they'll pick up less than 4.

Six Bullet Points From Success

As Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) today rightfully dismissed the Contract On America as unimportant in Republicans' 1994 mditerm election victores, he also promoted Democrats' "Six for '06", a set of broad legislative goals that Democrats would work toward in 2006. Here are the six bullet points Democrats want you to remember and associate with them:

  • National security
  • Jobs and wages
  • Energy independence
  • Affordable health care
  • Retirement security
  • College access for all

  • Not a bad list. Let me just say this about the Contract and its relevance today. First, while it's true the Contract did very little to help Republicans win in 1994, it did a lot to help them win in 1995. By getting universally behind a set of policy proposals before the election, Republicans were able to claim a mandate for those goals after the election. Much of the Contract is now law, and Republicans' huge psychological victory gave new life to the "Democrats don't win" narrative that Clinton had briefly squelched with his 1992 landslide victory.

    So should Democrats emulate the Contract? Well, that's a funny question. My guess is that yes they should, but mostly because it drives home the narrative that the coming election will be for Democrats what 1994 was for Republicans. To some extent, they'll be able to use it as a mandate for reform (pending the uncertain coming takeover of Congress of course). But its usefulness will be limited by the fact that it's just a set of bullet points to the media, not a set of proposals. And the fact that it will be a pale imitation of the original Contract. But that's not to say they shouldn't do it. Just don't get your expectations of it up too high.

    Granny Slap-Suit Self-Slaps With Sloppy Suit

    Comptroller Strayhorn, former Republican and now independent candidate for the Texas governorship, who I have dubbed Granny Slap-Suit for her libertine attitude toward lawsuits, is apparently now suing herself. Vince:

    Evidently, The Comptroller Formerly Known As Rylander can’t get enough of seeing the word “plaintiff” following her many names.

    Now, she wants to join a conservative group opposed to the Texas Tax Reform Commission/Rick Perry tax plan in a lawsuit they’ve filed challenging the plan in relation to the state’s constitutional spending cap—in which Strayhorn and other state leaders were named as defendants.

    And, since Strayhorn is a state officeholder, by becoming a plaintiff in the suit against the state, she’d be suing…herself? When it boils down to it, that’s probably about right.


    Good lord this governor's race is insane.


    Washington High Court Nixes Same-Sex Marriage

    A 5-4 decision though. 365gay:

    The state of Washington's ban on same-sex marriage is not unconstitutional the state Supreme Court ruled Wednesday.

    In a 5 - 4 split decision the justices ruled that only opposite-sex couples are biologically capable of having children and the legislature acted reasonably and in the best interests of children.

    The court did, however, say that the legislature could repeal DOMA and pass legislation allowing same-sex marriage.

    "We see no reason, however, why the legislature or the people acting through the initiative process would be foreclosed from extending the right to marry to gay and lesbian couples in Washington," the ruling, signed by Chief Justice Gerry Alexander, said.

    "It is important to note that the court's role is limited to determining the constitutionality of DOMA and that our decision is not based on an independent determination of what we believe the law should be."

    In a dissent, Justice Bobbe J Bridge said that " if the DOMA is really about the 'sanctity' of marriage, as its title implies, then it is clearly an unconstitutional foray into state-sanctioned religious belief. If the DOMA purports to further some State purpose of preserving the family unit, as the plurality would interpret it, then I cannot imagine better candidates to fulfill that purpose than the same-sex couples who are the plaintiffs in these consolidated actions."


    It looks like gay marriage advocates in the Washington legislature will introduce legislation to legalize same-sex marriage. The Washington legislature is probably one of the friendlier ones in the country at the moment too, being controlled by Democrats in both houses (56 of 98 in the state house and 26 of 49 in the state senate), and the Democratic governor has promised to sign gay marriage legislation as well.


    Honestly, I hope that in November the Washington state voters choose to vent their anger at the federal government (Republicans) instead of the equally unpopular state government (Democrats). They may need even more Democrats than they've got to get same-sex marriage legislation through. I'm crossing my fingers though.


    Oh Lance, Say It Ain't So!

    Lance Bass, formerly of 'N S'y'nc'' has come out of the closet. The way it should be done. On the cover of People Magazine. (Hat tip to Daisy at McBlogger)




    I suppose I can forgive him for waiting so long, since he's got a sitcom in the works, in which he actually plays a gay character. So many gay celebrities are afraid to come out lest they ruin their careers. I mean, I imagine. I have no specific information. *Cough* Ricky Martin *Cough*. But Lance has come out while he still has at least the possibility of a career as a journeyman pop icon. And for that, I say, bravo!

    And honestly, was there any other phrase Lance Bass could utter that would land him on the cover of People Magazine these days? I mean besides, "I'm getting married to Katie Holmes too."

    Tuesday, July 25, 2006

    Talk Amongst Yourselves

    Monday, July 24, 2006

    1994 v 2006: House Fundraising

    I'm always a sucker for 1994-2006 political environment comparisons. This one comes from the subscription-only section of Cook Political Report, brought public via Daily Kos:

    Democrats have also kept up a good pace with Republicans in the most competitive contests. Of the 15 Republican-held seats we list as Toss-Ups (there are no Democratic seats currently in this category), Republican incumbents had an average of $ 1,221,578 million in the bank to $982,830 for their Democratic challengers.

    But for the perennially underfunded Rep. John Hostettler and Rep. Charles Taylor who is notorious for self-funding his races, every other targeted Republican incumbent had a healthy cash-on-hand showing. And, say Republicans, a well-funded and well-prepared incumbent can weather even the worst political environment.

    Still, in looking at FEC filings at this point in 1994, we noticed that Democratic incumbents had a much more significant cash advantage over their GOP opponents, yet that obviously was not enough to protect them from the oncoming tidal wave.

    Tim Sahd, our webmaster and researcher and intern Ford Porter, looked at the fundraising figures of the 34 Democratic incumbents who would go on to lose in November as well as the figures of their challengers.

    What they found was that as of the 2nd quarter of 1994, the 34 House Democrats average cash-on-hand amount was $260,577.79. Their Republican challengers, meanwhile, had a cash-on-hand average of just $48,994.47. This translated into a five-to-one advantage for Democratic incumbents over their GOP challengers.

    This year, the average cash-on-hand total for the 29 Republican incumbents who are in Lean Republican or Toss Up is $1,143,575. Their Democratic challengers had an average of $586,575, giving GOP incumbents just a 2-1 cash advantage over their opponents.


    So basically, Democrats in 2006 are ahead of where Republicans were in 1994 among close House races. Go Team!


    Sunday, July 23, 2006

    CT-Sen: Lieberman Behind in More Polls

    Apparently, Rasmussen Reports has a new poll available only through their subscription-only service (thanks, Political Wire, for the numbers!), showing Lamont leading Lieberman in the primary:

    Ned Lamont (D) 51%
    Joe Lieberman (D) 40%

    But that's actually not the most interesting nugget to come out of this poll. It also shows that Lamont has reached a tie with Lieberman in the 3-way general election:

    Ned Lamont (D) 40%
    Joe Lieberman (I) 40%
    Arthur Schlesinger (R) 13%

    And I would think Republicans should be just a little embarrassed by the mere 13% their candidate gets in the polls. I mean, who do they think they are? Texas Democrats?

    Thursday, July 20, 2006

    CT-Sen: Lieberman Behind in Polls

    Lieberman is now behind in the race for the Democratic nomination. First, Quinnipiac released a new poll (6/8 numbers in parentheses):

    Lieberman (D) 47% (55%)
    Lamont (D) 51% (40%)


    And in the general election, with Lieberman running as an independent:

    Lieberman (I) 51% (56%)
    Lamont (D) 27% (18%)
    Schlesinger (R) 9% (8%)

    Don't let this one fool you though. If Lieberman loses the primary, watch for his numbers here to drop and Lamont's to rise as people beyond the activist base of the Democratic party begin to pay attention. It does look a little like the Republicans stand no chance at all of taking advantage of the intra-party fight here, doesn't it?

    The other poll wasn't actually released to the public, but was referenced by Jason Zengerle of the New Republic:

    I just wrote a piece for the latest print issue on the Lieberman campaign and I thought I had a bit of a scoop: a recent unpublished independent poll actually had Lieberman trailing Lamont 48 to 44.

    I think Lieberman is going to lose the primary. Not that polls can't change or anything, but Lieberman has been taking his base voters for granted for years, and it's catching up to him now. He had the perfect opportunity to change his situation last December with his bizarre editorial telling Democrats to stop criticizing Bush. Yes, that Bush, the unpopular President.

    Does he understand he represents the state of Connecticut, one of the most liberal Democratic states in the nation? Does he think he's Ben Nelson? Incumbents usually win primaries like this handily. It's not usually hard. Imagine what would have happened if Lieberman had started being more critical of Bush and less critical of the Democratic party in that editorial, and continued that strategy through today. Lamont wouldn't have had a chance.

    And now Lieberman insults the people he wants to vote for him by collecting signatures to run as an independent, and flirts with (or at least doesn't deny for a strangely long time) the idea of running as a Republican. I agree with Matt Stoller. Lieberman's campaign is melting down.

    Sadly, There Will Be No Peace in Lebanon

    As I've said before, the Israel-Lebanon crisis has me depressed. I'm both a lover of peace and a supporter of Israel, and it annoys me when I can't have my cake and eat it too. I'm fairly certain a fearsome ground invasion of southern Lebanon by the Israelis is coming, and I'm sad for the devastation I know this will cause innocent Lebanese bystanders. But I have to support Israel's right to defend itself here. Here's the analogy I think is relevant for most Americans:

    If a Mexican gang, that held positions in the Mexican government, were launching rockets at Houston, demanding the return of California, what would we do? If the gang kidnapped a couple of National Guardsmen keeping watch on the border? Would it be an acceptable solution to let an international peacekeeping force made up of Cuban, Venezuelan, and Chinese soldiers patrol Juarez and Nuevo Laredo?

    Disclaimers: I support Israel. I support a Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. I don't support terrorism. I don't like war and wish there were a way for Israel to be secure without attacking Hezbollah in Lebanon. I wish war had no casualties. I wish there could be no innocent civilians killed in war. And I certainly don't think it's fair for Lebanese civilians to have to be punished for Hezbollah's actions. If I could see a peaceful solution, I would support it, but I just don't.

    Israel cannot allow rockets to rain down on its heartland without retribution any more than any other country. Israel cannot allow French and Russian troops to be responsible for securing Israel -- they won't be truly willing to do what it takes. Israel might agree to American peacekeepers, but we'd never do it, and we're stretched pretty thin as it is. The Lebanese government is incapable of publicly criticizing, much less disarming, Hezbollah. And an air war alone will not be sufficient to neutralize Hezbollah to any lasting extent. The world political situation is about as favorable for an Israeli strike on Hezbollah as it's likely to get for decades. Israel sees this as an opportunity for at least a medium term solution. It seems to me that Israel will invade and crush Hezbollah (or at least try).

    Our government wants nothing more than for Israel to go right ahead. In fact, Condoleeza Rice's trip to the region is not going to produce any sort of diplomatic settlement because we don't want one, and Israel won't accept any plan that Lebanon is capable of meeting. In fact, I'm not really sure how her trip is going to do anything other than make her look ineffective. She probably shouldn't be going.

    Syria could bring pressure on Hezbollah to stop the escalation, but they won't. Israel probably won't go into Syria because they're afraid of what might arise there in the place of the Syrian regime. But of course, in war, the unexpected can and will happen. That's what's getting Bill Kristol and the neoconservatives all worked up again -- the prospects of a wider war in which all the governements they don't like get toppled after all. If Bush won't do it, how about Olmert?

    But Lebanon will face terrible destruction. Israel doesn't intend to occupy Lebanon again. They intend to inflict as much damage as possible in order to knock Hezbollah back years. And then they'll withdraw. The Lebanese government may well fall. I wonder if we won't see more hostage-taking of Americans in Lebanon. But then again, our government is being awfully carefree about getting our people out of Beirut. I wonder if our government knows something, or is just utterly incompetent? Not that they're mutually exclusive.

    Again, all of this has me very depressed. I want a peaceful settlement, but I doubt Lebanon can deliver one the Israelis will accept -- one in which Hezbollah is brought under control by the Lebanese government. And in absence of such a settlement, I'll support Israel's right to defend itself. What would we do if the rockets were hitting Houston?

    Wednesday, July 19, 2006

    Oh, How the Mighty Have Fallen

    Ralph Reed, former head of the Christian Coalition, has lost his bid to be Georgia's Lieutenant Governor, and becomes the first political casualty of the Abramoff scandal. Alas.


    Ralph Reed, Circa 1995





    Ralph Reed conceding, circa 2006.

    Monday, July 17, 2006

    2006 Election Postpourri


    Whew! A lot of stuff tonight...

    Sunday, July 16, 2006

    When I Have Fears

    I just finished Hyperion and Fall of Hyperion by Dan Simmons. Great books. In their honor, here's one of my favorite John Keats poems, beautiful and sad. You'll understand why Keats if you read the books. When I Have Fears:


    When I have fears that I may cease to be
    Before my pen has glean'd my teeming brain,
    Before high-piled books, in charactery,
    Hold like rich garners the full ripen'd grain;
    When I behold, upon the night's starr'd face,
    Huge cloudy symbols of a high romance,
    And think that I may never live to trace
    Their shadows, with the magic hand of chance;
    And when I feel, fair creature of an hour,
    That I shall never look upon thee more,
    Never have relish in the faery power
    Of unreflecting love;--then on the shore
    Of the wide world I stand alone, and think
    Till love and fame to nothingness do sink.

    2006 Election Postpourri

    Friday, July 14, 2006

    Granny Slap-Suit

    According to the Houston Chronicle, Texas Comptroller and independent candidate for Texas governor Carole Keeton Strayhorn is suing the Texas Secretary of State... again... to be called "Grandma" on the ballot. Is it just me, or have we all had enough of Granny Slap-Suit? Bring back One Tough Grandma. She was peppy.

    Anyway, I still say she should be trying to get on as "Your Grandma", and drop all those other names. That'd be a sure winner. For example, here is what the ballot might look like:

    • Richard "Kinky" Friedman (Independent)
    • Rick "Guv'nah" Perry (Republican)
    • Chris "[null]" Bell (Democrat)
    • Your Grandma (Independent)

    How would you vote? (I would vote for Bell, despite the null, but this is about you.)

    Charles Kuffner has more. As does SuperWow at PinkDome.

    McBlogger Swats Gladys Kravitz on the Tuckus

    I used to watch Bewitched reruns religiously, so when I read McBlogger's post "The REAL Problem with America", once I got past the all-caps-style emphasis, I immediately thought of Gladys Kravitz, the nosy neighbor from that show. She continually observed Samantha and her relatives commiting various acts of witchcraft, but never could prove it beyond shouting "Abner! Abner!" in a really nasally voice, until her husband slapped her silly. Offscreen of course.

    So here's McBlogger on America's real problem (emphasis from original, censorship mine):

    It has nothing to do with conservative vs. liberal. It has to do with nosey, bossy people who can't seem to focus on anything other than what they perceive others are doing 'wrong'.

    In short, the problem with America are all these Americans who refuse to mind their own f---ing business.


    I couldn't agree more. Gladys, this is America. Go back home to TV Land!

    Texas State Senate Rankings Update, Jul 14

    Only one change here as well. I meant to move SD-18 to Solid Republican Takeover due to the lack of a Democratic candidate.

    Solid Democratic Hold
    Ellis (SD-13)
    Whitmire (SD-15)
    Shapleigh (SD-29)
    SD-14 Open (Barrientos)

    Likely Democratic Hold
    SD-19 Open (Madla)

    Leans Democratic Hold
    (none)

    Solid Republican Takeover
    SD-18 Open (Armbrister)

    Republican-Held Tossup
    (none)

    Leans Republican Hold
    Eltife (SD-01)

    Likely Republican Hold
    (none)

    Solid Republican Hold
    Deuell (SD-02)
    SD-03 Open (Staples)
    Ogden (SD-05)
    SD-07 Open (Lindsay)
    Shapiro (SD-08)
    Nelson (SD-12)
    Janek (SD-17)
    Averitt (SD-22)
    Wentworth (SD-25)

    Previous State House Rankings: Dec 8, 2005; Jan 18, 2006; Feb 15, 2006, Mar 28, 2006, Jul 14, 2006
    Previous State Senate Rankings: Dec 5, 2006; Jan 17, 2006; Mar 27, 2006

    Texas State House Rankings Update, Jul 14

    Not much change, if only because I'm not sure where to go from here. But, I've decided to move Martha Wong from Likely Republican to Leans Republican based on the strength her Democratic opponent Ellen Cohen is showing in fundraising. It's something I actually meant to do months ago.

    Likely Democratic Hold
    Homer (HD-003)
    McReynolds (HD-012)
    HD-038 Open (Solis)
    Rose (HD-045)
    Howard (HD-048)
    Leibowitz (HD-117)
    Hernandez (HD-143)

    Leans Democratic Hold
    Hopson (HD-011)
    Cook (HD-017)
    Toureilles (HD-035)
    Strama (HD-050)
    Farbee (HD-069)
    HD-118 Open (Uresti)

    Democratic-Held Tossup
    HD-085 Open (Laney)
    Vo (HD-149)

    Republican-Held Tossup
    HD-047 Open (Keel)

    Leans Republican Hold
    HD-054 Open (Hupp)
    Anderson (HD-056)
    England (HD-106)
    HD-126 Open (Hamric)
    Wong (HD-134)

    Likely Republican Hold
    Seaman (HD-032)
    Orr (HD-058)
    Phillips (HD-062)
    HD-071 Open (Hunter)
    HD-091 Open (Griggs)
    HD-094 Open (Grusendorf)
    Goolsby (HD-102)
    HD-133 Open (Nixon)

    Previous State House Rankings: Dec 8, 2005; Jan 18, 2006; Feb 15, 2006, Mar 28, 2006
    Previous State Senate Rankings: Dec 5, 2006; Jan 17, 2006; Mar 27, 2006

    Thursday, July 13, 2006

    Stratfor on the Israel-Lebanon Crisis

    I subscribe to "security consulting intelligence agency" Stratfor's excellent email list because I find their take on international relations fascinating and informative. Usually they send 3 regular emails a week on different topics, but occasionally, they send a "Stratfor Red Alert - Breaking Intelligence" email, and then I know something serious is going on. The one I remember most vividly was their eerily prescient description of what could happen should Katrina strike New Orleans about a day or maybe two before the hurricane hit. That email was titled "The Geopolitics of Katrina", and might be a topic for another day. Today I got one about the Israel-Lebanon crisis. Here's Stratfor's conclusions:

    1. Israel cannot tolerate an insurgency on its northern frontier;
    if there is one, it wants it farther north.

    2. It cannot tolerate attacks on Haifa.

    3. It cannot endure a crisis of confidence in its military

    4. Hezbollah cannot back off of its engagement with Israel.

    5. Syria can stop this, but the cost to it stopping it is higher
    than the cost of letting it go on.

    It would appear Israel will invade Lebanon. The global response
    will be noisy. There will be no substantial international action
    against Israel. Beirut's tourism and transportation industry, as
    well as its financial sectors, are very much at risk.


    This whole situation has me very depressed.

    2006 Election Postpourri

    House Votes to Renew Voting Rights Act

    The House voted today to renew the 1965 Voting Rights Act unamended, rejecting attempts to modify the VRA to (among other things) require 10-year renewal periods instead of 25 and no longer require multi-lingual ballots. The final vote for passage was 390-33. I expect the Senate will follow suit, and President Bush will sign the VRA renewal into law.

    I'm proud of Democrats for sticking together on this. The fact that the Supreme Court just this year ruled Texas violated the Voting Rights Act in drawing one of its congressional districts (TX-23 if you recall) shows how necessary the VRA still is. And Democrats did stick together to prevent any modification whatsoever, threatening to bolt en masse and vote against any amended version of the VRA. The states the Voting Rights Act applies to are: Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, South Carolina, Texas and Virginia.

    Vince over at Capitol Annex has put together a terrific chart (I'm a sucker for charts and maps and things) showing just how each of Texas' representatives voted on each amendment and on final passage. My representative, Rep. Lamar Smith (TX-21) voted for every amendment, and then for final passage. Amazingly, several representatives from Texas (all Republicans, naturally) actually voted against this landmark legislation's renewal. They are: Sam Johnson, Jeb Hensarling, Joe Barton, Michael Conway, Mac Thornberry, and Ron Paul. They should be ashamed of themselves.

    Wednesday, July 12, 2006

    A Series Of Tubes

    I can't believe I missed writing about this. During last week's debate over net neutrality, Sen. Ted Stevens (R-AK) showed us why politicians should be very afraid of discussing technology in public. He thinks he understands. But he really, really, really doesn't. I know we've all pointed and laughed at Ted Stevens for a week already, but one more time won't really hurt, will it? Stevens take on the Internet, via Wired Magazine's blog 27B Stroke 6:

    There's one company now you can sign up and you can get a movie delivered to your house daily by delivery service. Okay. And currently it comes to your house, it gets put in the mail box when you get home and you change your order but you pay for that, right.

    But this service is now going to go through the internet* and what you do is you just go to a place on the internet and you order your movie and guess what you can order ten of them delivered to you and the delivery charge is free.

    Ten of them streaming across that internet and what happens to your own personal internet?

    I just the other day got, an internet was sent by my staff at 10 o'clock in the morning on Friday and I just got it yesterday. Why?

    Because it got tangled up with all these things going on the internet commercially.

    So you want to talk about the consumer? Let's talk about you and me. We use this internet to communicate and we aren't using it for commercial purposes.

    We aren't earning anything by going on that internet. Now I'm not saying you have to or you want to discrimnate against those people [¿]

    The regulatory approach is wrong. Your approach is regulatory in the sense that it says "No one can charge anyone for massively invading this world of the internet". No, I'm not finished. I want people to understand my position, I'm not going to take a lot of time. [¿]

    They want to deliver vast amounts of information over the internet. And again, the internet is not something you just dump something on. It's not a truck.

    It's a series of tubes.

    And if you don't understand those tubes can be filled and if they are filled, when you put your message in, it gets in line and its going to be delayed by anyone that puts into that tube enormous amounts of material, enormous amounts of material.

    Now we have a separate Department of Defense internet now, did you know that?

    Do you know why?

    Because they have to have theirs delivered immediately. They can't afford getting delayed by other people.

    [¿]

    Now I think these people are arguing whether they should be able to dump all that stuff on the internet ought to consider if they should develop a system themselves.

    Maybe there is a place for a commercial net but it's not using what consumers use every day.

    It's not using the messaging service that is essential to small businesses, to our operation of families.

    The whole concept is that we should not go into this until someone shows that there is something that has been done that really is a viloation of net neutraility that hits you and me.

    Audio can be found here. A hilarious techno remix can be found here.

    2006 Postpourri

    • ME-Gov: Baldacci struggles... Survey USA: Woodcock (R) 43% Baldacci (D) 41%
    • WI-Gov: Doyle gets safer. Badger Poll: Doyle (D) 49% Green (R) 36%
    • NJ-Sen: Menendez leads. Strategic Vision (R): Menendez (D) 43% Kean (R) 37%
    • GA-Gov: Taylor leads Dem primary: Strategic Vision (R): Taylor 48% Cox 42%
    • FL-Gov: Crist seems secure in Rep primary. Survey USA: Cirst 61% Gallagher 23%
    • FL-Sen: Poor candidate Katherine Harris assured of Rep nomination. Survey USA: Harris 51% McBride 14%
    • MA-Gov: Patrick surges in the Dem primary. State House Poll: Patrick 35% Gabrieli 22% Reilly 19%
    • MA-Gov: And Patrick surges against Healey as well. State House Poll: Patrick (D) 40% Healey (R) 31% Mihos (I) 9%.
    • OH-18: Ney puts out his own numbers: Public Opinion Strategies (R): Ney (R) 45% Space (D) 41% to counter Space's previous poll release, which showed: Space (D) 46% Ney (R) 35%.

    Karl-Thomas Steps Back

    One of my favorite Texas-oriented progressive bloggers, Karl-Thomas Musselman of Burnt Orange Report, is taking a step back from blogging to concentrate on the other aspects of life. He says he'll be back in August, and I hope that is so. Good luck, Karl-Thomas! I'm sure I'm just one of many who will be waiting anxiously for your return.

    Tuesday, July 11, 2006

    MT-Sen: Tester Up

    Rasmussen:

    Jon Tester (D) 50%
    Conrad Burns (R) 43%

    This race looks like it's about to move into the "Leans Takeover" category, along with Rick Santorum's seat in Pennsylvania.

    Wisconsin Anti-gay Marriage Amendment Poll

    The ballot measure defining marriage as between a man and a woman could come down to the wire:

    Support Amendment: 49%
    Oppose Amendment: 48%

    It should be noted that this is much different than previous polls, which showed support for the amendment around 60%.

    MO-Sen: McCaskill and Talent are Tied

    Rasmussen:

    Jim Talent (R) 42%
    Claire McCaskill (D) 42%

    Monday, July 10, 2006

    2006 Postpourri

    • TX-22: Tom DeLay has three options: run again, officially withdraw, or get the legislature to change the rules on his behalf. Now which sounds most like Tom DeLay to you?
    • VA-05: Rep. Virgil Goode (R) leads for re-election 49.2% to 35%
    • OH-18: But Bob Ney (R) looks like he's going down, trailing Democrat Zach Wamp 45% to 36%
    • SC-Gov: Republican Governor Mark Sanford just hit a snag. Republican State Senator Jake Knotts is going to run against him as an independent, possibly splitting the Republican vote. State Senator Tommy Moore is the Democratic nominee.
    • TX-Gov: Looks like Kinky get to be Richard "Kinky" Friedman on the ballot, but Strayhorn can't be "Your Grandma". Now that it's no longer taken, maybe Chris Bell can be Chris "Grandma" Bell? Please leave other such ideas in the comments if you're so inclined.

    Friday, July 07, 2006

    Casual Soapbox Interviews A Famous Historian

    Since becoming Leading News Correspondent for Casual Soapbox, I was recently forced to admit I have never actually done an interview. After hanging my head in shame for more than ten seconds, I defiantly promised myself and the Almighty that I would conduct an interview with a famous historian, regardless of the inevitably horrific consequences. So, after waging an unsuccessful campaign of kidnapping and blackmailing various moderately unknown television news personalities, I finally settled on the one historian I know personally, Dr. Nigel Augustus Cranston, a contributing member of Blowhard International Press Syndicate and nightly regular of several Austin microbreweries, whose most recent work, entitled Deconstructing Perfection: Post-Deconstructionist Dialectic Theory in the Works of Moi, is a celebration of his own previous works. Without further ado, here is my interview.

    Casual Soapbox: Dr. Cranston, in your book, you referred to history as "the leading cause of more history". What did you mean by that?

    Famous Historian: Well, when we examine the current dynamic, namely that history constructs, in a sense, the status quo, it becomes utterly obvious that this status quo will finally be caterogorized as 'more history.' That is, of course, if the French have nothing to do with it. (Rule Britannia.) If we look towards deconstruction, we see a 2000 pound silverback mountain gorilla with foul breath and a sexual apetite unseen since 1970s era B movies breathing down the back, so to speak, of history. It is history's job, I think, to outrun it, to create more history which can, in turn, employ more historians who will talk about literary theory as history. Ergo 'Look at derrida and what he said about late capitalist society and his personal debt to failed marxism' and not the other way round, meaning, I think, eschewing history in favor of theory. Or maybe it's all a load of sweaty donkey bollocks. Come to speak of it, where am I? I mean, where was I. Oh! Yes, I suppose I am now history. And so forth.

    Casual Soapbox: A most welcome perspective on the reasons underlying the necessity of employing more historians I say! Now, in an attempt to humanize the primary subject of your book, which is of course yourself, you also share some very fond memories of various tragedies that affected you growing up during the time period you refer to as "history". Can you talk a little about the sense of despair and loathing for all things that you laud so emphatically in your book, and in particular how these strong emotions serve to make history more entertaining for historians like yourself to study?

    Famous Historian: Well, I grew to adulthood in a Carthaginian salt mine, and was finally awarded a scholarship to attend oxford....a most advantageous escape mechanism, if I might add. Before my tenure in the salt mine, I was involved in a slave uprising which covered most of the....wait....that was not my history.....I...um...read that somewhere. I am actually from Twichenham, London, but I grew up in a Turkish prison (my parents were opium smugglers out of Istanbul with liasons in the East End.) So, that was in a sense how I afforded Oxford. As I recount such tales of hardship, water torture, ritual scarification, gorilla sodomy, and other triubulations, I insert possible historiographical figurations of how we might contextualize these events within a larger body of work, namely, history.

    Famous Historian: History, in all senses, is finally "his story", the story of the historian, though the better "his story"s are based on things we call 'facts,' shunted through a process called 'analysis.' We only can read the breadth of our own life, so to speak.

    Casual Soapbox: A more experienced or female news correspondent might take issue with your definition of "his"story, but, luckily for you, this correspondent is consisitently and intentionally insensitive to all gender related conflicts, for reasons that might be obvious. I must, however, take issue with your blatant plagiarism of my life story. I talked quite extensively about my own scholarship at Trackside Peoria Community College from the Carthaginian Slave Reparatory Scholarship Fund, maintained by the Italian government, in my collection of personal essays, Pure Treacle. Never wear sandals to a salt mine, by the way. Perhaps I should ask you pointedly about the penchant for famous historians, such as Doris Kearns Goodwin, Stephen Ambrose, and yourself, to pilfer the work of others, willy-nilly, and then apologize unconvincingly about it on the blue moon when someone actually reads your work. How about it good sir? How about it?

    Famous Historian: I would now like to challenge you to a mumbly peg competition, which, if you are an historian...or certainly a former Carthaginian slave, you should be quite familiar with. In fact, I think it is the only way I shall achieve satisfaction. So what if I read that book and it became my own life....I have a medical condition called 'Cautioned Placement,' the symptoms of which involve me not only projecting myself into stories and accounts, but into history itself, thence becoming part of it. But I digress.....mumbly peg is all that can remain after such an assault!

    Casual Soapbox: Whoa...uh... looks like we're out of time, and... Well, strike that. My producer and trained (although apparently not. quite. so. well. as. I'd. thought.) monkey Bobo is telling me that we have time for one last question. But definitely, absolutely no time whatsoever, under the sun, for any "game" involving either mumblies or pegs, which, by the way, sounds quite improper. And I suppose in our blame-casting society of victims, we can excuse any manner of intellectual sloth, or what have you, simply by referring to it as a "condition" or an "addiction" or an "alien mind-control technology". So, que sera sera, and on we go. Anyway. Ahem. One last question. You read my book? Er, no wait. That isn't my question. This is my question: In a time such as this, a time of pure and consummate nihilism, a time when there is no overriding social directive instructing us for what ends it is proper or even desirable to strive, what does it all mean? What's on next week's episode of history for God, the universe, mankind and the other bits?

    Famous Historian: I would propose that one could come to a clearer understanding of what it is all about via said mumbly peg competition. If, as Einstein says, God plays dice with the universe, then perhaps God plays mumbly peg as well. And we would be most prudent to move quickly in such a situation, if we value our bollocks. For perhaps God cheats at Mumbly Peg. Ask Bobo. He cheats. And by the way, you refrained from informing me that Bobo was running the interview. Now your true intentions surface. So it is not to be mumbly peg, but gorilla fun of a Biblical nature. In that case, I plan to exit from the...... .[Exit, pursued by a silverback mountain gorilla]

    (This interview was terminated by a gorilla attack. Authorities are investigating the whereabouts of Cranston, but have no leads.)

    Final thoughts ( a la Jerry Springer ):

    Casual Soapbox: I end more conversations that way... Well, after what must surely be described as the most important interview ever, I can only say that I, abramcf, Leading News Correspondent for Casual Soapbox, have produced the single most ground-breaking piece of journalism ever (throughout history) forged in the creative fires of this website. And it only took five months to complete. Although he misquoted Einstein -- God does not play dice with the universe, said Einstein, does not --called Bobo a cheater, and threatened repeatedly and quite viciously to mumble my peg, it was obvious Dr. Nigel Augustus Cranston was one of the great minds of the century, and it has been my great pleasure to flatter him obsequiously and indulge his delusions of grandeur. We and the Austin Microbreweries Association hope he yet lives.

    Essential Note: The above interview is fictional and did not actually occur. Any resemblance of Dr. Cranston, Bobo, or the silverback mountain gorilla to real persons is purely coincidental and can be properly blamed on a vast left-wing conspiracy. This interview was co-written by me and a friend who shall at this time remain nameless, but wishes anonymous credit.

    Angelides Would Legalize Same-Sex Marriage in California

    Democratic gubernorial nominee Phil Angelides says he would sign legislation to make same-sex marriage legal in California. Republican Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger vetoed a bill like that last year. This means it is possible the states of California and New York might legalize gay marriage next year by legislation (rather than by court ruling). Those states are the 1st and 3rd largest by population too. No small potatoes.

    CT-Sen: Lieberman and Lamont Debate

    Liberman and Lamont debated for the first and only time last night. The local news moderators were thrilled to be fed directly into C-Span and MSNBC, while Lieberman reminded me of George W. Bush in his second debate against John Kerry where he went all hyper. Lamont was nervous, but who wouldn't be debating an 18-year Senator and former vice presidential candidate on national TV when you're an unknown in most of the country?

    Lieberman's previous nationally televised debate was against then Republican vice presidential candidate Dick Cheney in 2000 and was properly described as genteel and collegial. Thus, Lamont's quote about Lieberman's performance last night:

    "When [he’s] debating a Republican, it’s like a tea party, but when he’s debating a Democrat he shows his passionate juices."

    I watched some of it, but I got bored and turned it off. If anyone's interested Hotline has the highlight reel.

    Thursday, July 06, 2006

    Gay Marriage Setbacks in New York and Georgia

    It looks like the gay marriage cause suffered some setbacks today. The New York Court of Appeals declined to mandate gay marriage in that state, and the Georgia Supreme Court reinstated the state's anti-gay marriage amendment that had been overturned by a lower court. We win some, we lose some. But I have no doubt today represents only temporary setbacks.

    Especially in New York. There, Elliot Spitzer, the attorney general and gubernatorial nominee, has said he supports gay marriage, and the Democrats have an excellent chance to pick up control of the state senate. That just might mean legislative victory in the next few years.

    TX-22: Tom DeLay Must Remain On the Ballot

    Republican district court judge Sam Sparks has ordered that Tom DeLay must remain on the ballot this November, and that Republicans must cease their efforts to replace him. (Houston Chronicle, emphasis mine):

    U.S. District Judge Sam Sparks, a Republican appointee, ruled that DeLay must appear on the Nov. 7 ballot as the GOP nominee for the congressional seat that he abandoned last month.

    Sparks said DeLay could "withdraw'' from the race under Texas election law, but that still would not allow the Republicans to replace him on the ballot.

    DeLay had sought to have state Republican Chair Tina Benkiser declare him ineligible by moving from Sugar Land to his condominium in Virginia. But Sparks said that would not make him ineligible because the requirement under the Constitution is whether DeLay is an inhabitant of Texas on election day.

    Sparks said contradicting evidence raised questions about whether DeLay planned to remain a resident of Virginia, but he said that did not matter because DeLay could not say where he would be on election day.

    "The court holds that allowing Benkiser to declare DeLay ineligible at this time would amount to a de facto residency requirement in violation of the United States Constitution,'' Sparks said in his opinion.


    With Tom DeLay's name on the ballot, Democrat Nick Lampson holds a definite edge. Of course, this decision could be reversed on appeal. But even so, the longer Tom DeLay sticks around as the nominee, the more money Lampson can raise running against him. And the longer other potential Republican nominees have to wait to put together a campaign.


    Wednesday, July 05, 2006

    MN-Gov: Pawlenty Way Down

    Rasmussen on the Minnesota Governor's race:

    Hatch (D) 47%
    Pawlenty (R) 42%


    This isn't the first time Pawlenty's been behind in this poll. In fact, I don't understand why Cook still rates this race as "Leans Republican". Pawlenty isn't hopeless, but this race (along with, in my opinion, the Rhode Island governorship on the Republican side, and the Illinois and Oregon governorships on the Democratic side) deserves to be called what it is: a tossup.

    HI-Sen: Akaka Leads, Barely

    The reverse of the Connecticut Democratic primary is happening simultaneously now in Hawai'i. Sen. Akaka is being challenged from the right by Rep. Ed Case, and Akaka's just as vulnerable as Lieberman. A new poll shows Akaka leading, but barely:

    Hawai'i Democratic Primary:
    Akaka 51%
    Case 40%

    Akaka's popularity has suffered during this primary, with Survey USA putting his approval/disapproval for June at 48% approve/43% disapprove. Not good. Though if he does survive the primary, there's no chance he'll lose in November.

    Anyway, it will be interesting to see how many of the Democrats who are travelling to Connecticut to campaign for Lieberman also travel to Hawai'i to campaign for Akaka. Someone should ask them about that.

    TX-HD-33: Luna Resigns

    Democratic state Rep. Vilma Luna is resigning, effective July 31. The folks at Burnt Orange Report have me utterly confused as to how exactly she will be replaced. As far as I can tell though, it looks like Republicans now have a way to turn what had been a safe seat into a race, though Democrats should still have the advantage. I think each party's county committee (Nueces County) picks a nominee, and both will appear on the ballot. Personally, I don't think I care much for that method, but there it is.

    Meanwhile, there appears to be no shortage of Democrats seeking to replace Luna in November, including Solomon Ortiz, Jr., Danny Noyola, and Gloria Perez. It will be interesting to see who the county committee picks.

    If this does in fact become a race, then based on the Dewhurst/Sharp race of 2002, in which the district went 59% for Sharp and 41% for Dewhurst, I'll change this race from "Safe Democratic" to "Leans Democratic". I suppose I'll wait for a little while to make the rating change official though, just in case I'm missing something. Which is probably the case.

    UPDATE: Here are a few other numbers from the state legislature's district reports for TX-HD-33, which contains roughly half of Corpus Christi by population:

    Racial Composition (2000 Census): 33.3% Anglo, 5% Black, 59.5% Hispanic, 2.2% Other

    2004 Elections:
    Bush/Cheney (R) 54.1%
    Kerry/Edwards (D) 45.9%

    Rep. Solomon Ortiz (D) 67.1%
    William Vaden (R) 32.9%

    Is Ann Coulter A Plagiarist?

    It looks like the Universal Press Syndicate, the distributor for Ann Coulter's column is investigating reports she extensively plagiarized in her recent book Godless. TPM Muckraker [emphasis mine]:

    I had asked Kerr earlier this morning whether her company was taking any action in response to these published claims.

    In an email, Kerr thanked me for bringing the assertions to UPS's attention, and asked me to get a copy of the report to them. "If Mr. Barrie would be so kind to send Lee Salem, President and Editor of Universal Press Syndicate his report, we will be happy to review it. Until we do, there's little we can say about it," she wrote me. John Barrie was the New York Post's expert source who claimed to have identified Coulter's plagiarized passages.

    In my reply, I explained to Kerr that Barrie had been quoted not by me but by the New York Post, and perhaps that paper would be a good source of information. Kerr replied: "we have no contact information."

    A few minutes later, however, Ms. Kerr located Barrie's contact information on the Web and said she would try to call him herself. Moments later, another email from Ms. Kerr arrived: "I've left Mr. Barrie a message."

    Sounds like the Coulter plagiarism investigation is off to a flying start. I've put in a call myself to Mr. Barrie, and am waiting to hear back. I'll let you know what I find out.


    The Rude Pundit has been all over this. Check it out through the following link, but be forewarned, he can be very.. well... rude... [link].


    Tuesday, July 04, 2006

    Happy Independence Day!

    CT-Sen: Lieberman Declares Independence From You

    Joe Lieberman is running dual campaigns now, one for the Democratic nomination, and one for a spot on the ballot as an independent, just in case he loses. What an ass. While I think he has a right to run in whatever way he pleases, this is just about the most insulting thing I can imagine him doing to the Connecticut Democratic primary voters. He's basically telling them their support is irrelevant to him. I now think Lieberman will lose the nomination, and run as an independent against Democratic nominee Ned Lamont and Republican nominee Alan Schlesinger. That will throw the race wide open. All three candidates will have a shot.

    While I wasn't a big fan of Lieberman's tendency to air Democratic greivances in public, up until this point, I also wasn't a big fan of a primary challenge. I actually like Lieberman as a Jewish politician who incorporates Judaism into his public image, rather than minimizing it, and, though not perfect on issues, was pretty much in line with the Democratic mainstream. With the singular, and huge, exception of his unequivocal support for the Iraq war. His seat was safe without the challenge, and if he somehow defeats Lamont in the primary, a scenario I find increasingly unlikely, the seat will remain safe.

    That said, Lieberman's predicament is his own fault. His support for the war I think hurts him with Democratic voters, but wasn't enough to put him here. After all, Hillary Clinton last year was just as supportive of the war. She's equivocated a little, but not that much really. But there's no serious attempt to mount a primary challenge to her. And there are more conservative Democrats out there than Lieberman that don't generate the anger within the party that he does. Ben Nelson of Nebraska, for example, votes much more conservatively.

    Instead, I think Lieberman's problem stems mostly from the fact that there are no Democrats so disloyal and so publicly disdainful of the Democratic brand as he is. I think his big mistake, strategically, was actually the op-ed piece he wrote saying the criticism of the President helped the enemy in Iraq, basically helping the general Republican media effort, and firing a shot directly at the Democratic brand. That cemented Lieberman's image of disloyalty among the party faithful. And it was the exact opposite of what he needed to do. Last year, instead of taking up the Republican party's talking points, he could have clammed up, or better yet, started loudly criticizing Republicans. He didn't, and so he is where he is.

    Should Lamont pull this off, progressives, and the activist base of the Democratic party, will be the winners. Lamont will be more progressive on just about every issue, and much more responsive to the activist base, which primarily wants to take on the Republicans strongly. And it will serve as a loud and clear message to other Beltway Democrats that the time is here to drop the politics of me-too-ism and equivocation, and start agressively speaking to the people and inspiring the party. If that happens, Lieberman's ouster would be well worth it. If Lieberman actually wins the primary is the nominee, I'll still support him, though not quite as enthusiastically as I might have before this little stunt.

    Back From Baltimore

    I just flew in from Baltimore and boy are my wings tired... ba-boom-boom swish! I was up there for the first time for the wedding of my good friend, and loyal reader, Tommy to his fabulous and gorgeous longtime girlfriend Kim. It was a beautiful ceremony and one heck of a party. (I got to see Tommy's dad dance at the reception, so my life is now complete.) Congratulations, Tommy and Kim! I wish you guys many long and happy years in your lifetime together!

    I know I violated one of the cardinal rules of blogging by not appointing an interim blogmaster while I was gone. But honestly, my brother and his wife had their hands full looking after my cats, and there was really no one else I could turn to that my readers wouldn't see as a slap in the face, as unworthy of their sage and discerning, wide-brimmed-bifocal-adorned, all-knowing eyes. It's all about you, the readers, really. Yeah... that's the ticket...

    So what did I miss?