NY-20: Sweeney Campaigns at a Frat Party

Ok, to me, this doesn't seem like it was a good idea. Make sure you take note of the guy in the upper right-hand corner.


The guy in the tie is Republican Congressman John Sweeney, from New York's 20th district, rated as "Likely Republican" by Charlie Cook. According to the student newspaper at Union College, Sweeney was acting "openly intoxicated", and was "sometimes even using profanity". Now, I don't have a problem personally with Congressmen drinking (responsibly) or cursing, and I hope all these college kids are 21. But, this probably isn't the image Sweeney would want to portray. A reasonably serious campaign against him could get some mileage out of photos like that.

TX-Gov: Fourth Place

Doh! Chris Bell is in 4th place in the latest poll of the Texas governor race from Survey USA:

Perry (R) 39%
Strayhorn (I) 25%
Friedman (I) 16%
Bell (D) 15%

This makes me sad. Sad sad sad sad sad. Karl-Thomas dissects it in his Texas Round-Up. I find it interesting that the candidate Democrats are leaving for is Strayhorn and not Kinky.

What the Texas House Did

Just Another Matt has a good explanation of the Texas House's recent activity on property taxes. And I'm very glad he does, since I haven't been following the special session as closely as the rest of the progressive Texas blogs. (Bad abramcf!) It looks like big business makes out at the expense of small business. Big surprise there -- Republicans are for everything big: big business, big religion, big military, big government. Anyway, here's what they passed:

1. HB 1 lowered property taxes for big business and wealthy homeowners.
2. HB 2 dedicates ALL future revenue growth from “new” business taxes to property taxes.
3. HB 3 is the new business income tax. None of that money will ever be spent on educating our school children, as directed by HB 2.

It looks like the ball's in the senate's court now. I don't expect much from them, though. Republicans run the state senate too.

CA-50: Bilbray Leads Busby

It looks like there was a poll in CA-50 showing Republican Brian Bilbray and Democrat Francine Busby tied at 45%. They're competing to fill the vacant seat left by disgraced Republican Rep. Randy "Duke" Cunningham on June 6 in a special election. I'm not sure how I missed that... I realize it's a somewhat Republican district, so I'm not sure what to think of Busby's chances there.

I'm holding out hope, but Democrats don't seem as motivated to turn out as they would need to be. Personally, I expect the reasons for that have something to do with Democrats' disapproval of their own leadership at the moment. But who really knows?

RI-Sen: Brown Drops Out

Rhode Island's Democratic Secretary of State Matt Brown is dropping out of the race for Senate there. The Boston Globe:

Secretary of State Matt Brown, dogged by questions about his fundraising practices in the campaign for U.S. Senate, dropped out of the race Wednesday, citing money problems.

"I simply will not have the resources in the final stretch to run successfully," Brown said at a news conference where he endorsed his opponent for the Democratic nomination, former Attorney General Sheldon Whitehouse.

They have been vying for the seat held by Republican Sen. Lincoln Chafee, who faces Cranston Mayor Stephen Laffey in the primary.

So the Democratic nomination now belongs to Sheldon Whitehouse, an entirely reasonable candidate. I suppose now it will be interesting to see whether Whitehouse trains his fire on Sen. Chafee to soften him up for November, or on Laffey to build him up in the Republican primary -- a sort of "whatever you do, don't throw me in the briar patch" move. Should Laffey actually knock Chafee off in the primary, this seat becomes much more vulnerable.

32% and the Wave Election

CNN has Bush at another new all-time low: 32% approval. Chris Bowers at MyDD thinks the exact approval rating is unimportant "as long as it remains low" because our real goal here is a 1994-style midterm national political realignment. I tend to agree.

Clinton's lowest approval rating was 36%, but he floated around mostly in the 40's during the runup to 1994. In 1992, Bush Sr's approval ratings were in the dumps as well. But although Democrats grabbed the presidency, Republicans actually gained seats in the House, while the parties broke even in the Senate. Republicans also picked up control of 2 state legislatures, while Democrats lost control of 5. In other words, 1992, despite Bush Sr's low approval rating, didn't end up as a wave election, even though Democrats picked up the presidency.

Now, I think the wave is already there. Republicans are trying to de-nationalize an already nationalized election. And certainly we should watch what happens in the CA-50 special election as a means to test the strength of the wave. If Democrats can't win in CA-50, it seems unlikely they will take control of the House by any sort of overwhelming margin.

Most analysts list CA-50 as "Leans Republican", the standard name for the "Second Most Vulnerable" category, including Charlie Cook, my default analyst of choice. He lists 15 seats as "Leans Republican": AZ-05, CA-50, CT-04, FL-22, IL-06, IN-02, KY-04, MN-06, NY-24, NC-11, OH-01, OH-15, PA-08, WA-08, WI-08. Cook lists 9 seats in his "Most Vulnerable" seats category, "Tossup". Those seats are AZ-08, CO-07, CT-02, IN-08, IN-09, IA-01, NM-01, OH-18, and PA-06.

If Democrat Francine Busby doesn't win in the CA-50 special election, most analysts would have a hard time saying Democrats could go beyond those 22 seats in November. Democrats need 15 seats to win control of the House, so if they won every seat in November from that list except CA-50, they'd have a 6 seat margin of control of the House. Not very comfortable, really. So here's hoping the wave is strong enough for Democrats to pick CA-50 off June 6th.

I Have the Best Job in America

According to MONEY Magazine, "Software Engineer" is the best job in America. Don't you all wish you were me now more than ever? My dad has the second best job in America -- "College Professor". And my partner has the third best (sort of.. well not really) -- "Financial Advisor". Who knew my family and I were all so lucky? Check out the full list of the 50 best jobs to find out just how much you should really hate or love your job.

Hi ho, hi ho, it's off to work I go...

Sunset Valley "Meet the Candidates" Potluck

Yesterday, my partner and I went to a "Meet the Candidates" potluck for Sunset Valley city council candidates at the home of a former councilmember. All in all, I counted 4 current councilmembers (Susan Jung, Charles Goyette, Cat Quintanilla, who's running unopposed for mayor, and Jeff Mills, who's running for re-election), 3 former councilmembers, and 3 additional candidates for city council -- Robb Buchanan, John Moore, and Bob Garrett.

I plan to vote for Jeff Mills, who's the only candidate from our neighborhood. But I get two votes, and the top two vote-getters are elected. I haven't decided yet who my second vote will go to.

Also at the potluck was Democrat Susan Steeg, former general counsel for the Texas Department of Health, who's running for Justice of the Peace in precinct 3 in November against Republican incumbent Melissa Goodwin. Susan was endorsed by the Austin Lesbian and Gay Political Caucus and the Stonewall Democrats, as well as the Hispanic Bar Association of Austin and Austin Central Labor Council. Honestly, I can't see myself not voting for her. She was very impressive, and I think she has a good chance to win. Melissa Goodwin won in 2002 with only 52.22% of the vote, and I expect this will be a much better year for Democrats in Travis County than 2002. Good luck, Susan!

Deep Sleep for the Creepy Veep

Looks like Cheney got some much needed rest during Bush's press briefing with Chinese Prime Minister Hu Jintao. From the New York Post, via Political Wire:

How Low Can He Go?

33%. Why does Fox News hate America? By the way, that's lower than Clinton ever got in a poll leading up to 1994 (or ever actually) by 3%.

Keep Austin Blue - Austin City Council Edition

Yesterday I went to another meeting of Keep Austin Blue at Mother Egan's Irish Pub. And once again, I had entirely too much. Fun! Too much fun. Of course, that's what I meant... too much fun. This time, there were more speakers than I could catch on camera. There are all sorts of people running for the May 13 Austin city council election, and for the Austin Community College Board of Trustees, and speaking in favor of one proposition or another. It was a madhouse!

And as usual, I used my abysmal photography skills for evil and captured the spirits with my digital camera. Although I so relish afflicting you all with bad pictures, I do feel bad that I didn't get shots of every speaker. They just came at me so fast. So at the end I'm including a list of all the candidates, with links to their websites. Enjoy!

Colin Calmbacher, candidate for Austin city council:



Spokeswoman for Eliza May, another candidate for Austin city council:



Mike Martinez, another candidate for city council:



Speaking in favor of Proposition 6:



ACC Candidate Ana Mejia-Dietche:



ACC Candidate (and fellow Comp Sci person) James McGuffee:



My friendly table-mates:



The fine people of Keep Austin Blue, making me feel like one of the gang:



Here's a list of the candidates for mayor, city council, and ACC Board of Trustees.

Austin Mayor

Will Wynn
Danny Thomas
Jennifer Gale

Austin City Council

Place 2:
Wes Benedict
Eliza May
Mike Martinez

Place 5:
Mark Hopkins
Colin Kalmbacher
Brewster McCracken
Kedron Touvell

Place 6:
Sheryl Cole
DeWayne Lofton
Darrell Pierce

Austin Community College Board of Trustees

Place 7:
Barbara Mink

Place 8:
Rodney Ahart
James McGuffee

Place 9:
Allen Kaplan
Ana Mejia-Dietche

Proposition ballot language for all 7 propositions can be found here.

Scott McClellan Resigns

White House Press Secretary Scott McClellan has resigned from his post today. I haven't heard whether or not he gave the usual line of "I plan to spend more time with my family." I wonder if that means he's not going to come back to Texas to work on his mom's campaign now? Names I've heard for his replacement include former spokesman for the Coalition Provisional Authority in Iraq Dan Senor and Fox News anchor Tony Snow, who pretty much already is a White House spokesman.

Also in the news, Karl Rove is leaving his role as a policy advisor to focus on political strategy. Basically, he wants to spend more time with his evil plans.

Well, Somone Needs to Go...

Every administration needs to "clean house" occasionally. People are fired, resign, or are given plum ambassadorships one tropical paradise or another. It's not a sign of weakness -- people get tired, you know? With new blood comes new thinking. And in that spirit, it looks like Bush has found a couple members of the administration to let go. Tragic, yes, but necessary. I doubt it will fix any of his problems though...

New Survey USA 50-State Poll

Survey USA just released its April numbers for President Bush's approval/disapproval ratings in all 50 states. His overall approval rating was 36% approval, 59% disapproval, which was the same approval as last month and a 1% improvement for Bush in his disapproval rating. Only 4 states give Bush an approval rating over 50% -- Wyoming, Idaho, Utah and Nebraska. Oklahoma is split 48%-48% over whether to approve or disapprove of Bush, but in the other 45 states, more people disapprove of Bush's job performace than approve.

Utah is once again Bush's best state with 55% approval, 40% disapproval. Rhode Island is his worst state, with 24% approval, and 74% disapproval. The best "blue" state for Bush is Wisconsin with 39% approving and 58% disapproving. The worst "red" state for Bush is Ohio, where 34% approve and 63% disapprove. In my home state of Texas, also Bush's home state of course, 45% approve and 51% disapprove.

Last week, Survey USA also published the approval ratings of the governor of every state. Republican governors standing for re-election in 2006 with approval ratings below 50% include: Ehrlich (MD) 48%, Perry (TX) 47%, Schwarzenegger (CA) 35%, and Murkowski (AK) 29%. Democratic governors standing for re-election in 2006 with approval ratings below 50% include: Blagojevich (IL) 47%, Granholm (MI) 40%, Baldacci (ME) 39%, and Kulongoski (OR) 33%.

Democrats Jim Doyle (WI) and Ed Rendell (PA) are over 50% now. And although Blagojevich is still below 50%, 47% is far better than his showings in the thirties last year. He may just pull through.

HR 27

Well that didn't take long. It was the first day of the special session yesterday, and already the silliness begins. Here's the text of an actual resolution introduced by Rep. Goolsby yesterday on the first day of a special session about property taxes and school finance (hat tip to Pink Dome):

WHEREAS, Karl Rove, the formidable political strategist who
serves as senior advisor to President George W. Bush and as the
president's deputy chief of staff in charge of policy, was roasted
during the 50th anniversary celebration of the Headliners Club on
January 12, 2006; and

WHEREAS, Born in 1950, Mr. Rove was raised in Colorado,
Nevada, and Utah; fascinated with politics from an early age, he
worked on his first campaign in 1968 while a high school senior, and
by 1971 he had become executive director of the College Republican
National Committee; subsequently, from 1973 to 1975, he led that
organization as national chairman; and

WHEREAS, Mr. Rove moved to Texas in 1977 and went to work for
State Representative Fred Agnich; the following year he helped
William P. Clements, Jr., become the first Republican governor of
Texas since Reconstruction; and

WHEREAS, In 1981 Mr. Rove established Karl Rove + Company, a
direct mail consulting firm, and over the course of the next two
decades he worked on hundreds of political campaigns; among the
candidates to benefit from his expertise were President Ronald
Reagan in 1984 and scores of Republicans across the country vying
for gubernatorial, U.S. senatorial, and U.S. congressional
offices; and

WHEREAS, On his home ground, in Texas, he played an
instrumental role in electing Phil Gramm to the U.S. House of
Representatives in 1982 and to the U.S. Senate in 1984, Bill
Clements to a second gubernatorial term in 1986, and Tom Phillips to
the office of chief justice of the Texas Supreme Court in 1988; two
years later he helped Rick Perry become Texas agriculture
commissioner and Kay Bailey Hutchison state treasurer, and in 1993
he assisted Ms. Hutchison in her successful run for the U.S. Senate;
and

WHEREAS, A key figure in George W. Bush's two successful runs
for the governorship of Texas and then for the presidency of the
United States, Mr. Rove serves as one of the president's closest
advisors and also coordinates the policies of the National Security
Council, Domestic Policy Council, National Economic Council, and
Homeland Security Council; and

WHEREAS, Before joining the president's administration, Mr.
Rove taught at The University of Texas at Austin, in the LBJ School
of Public Affairs and in the Department of Journalism, and served as
a faculty member at the Salzburg Seminar in American Studies in
Austria; in addition, he was a member of the Board of International
Broadcasting, which oversaw the operations of Radio Free Europe and
Radio Liberty, and served on the board of the McDonald Observatory;
and

WHEREAS, Mr. Rove and his wife, Darby, a graphic designer,
married in 1986; they are the parents of a son, Andrew Madison Rove;
and

WHEREAS, Hailed by President Bush as the "architect" of his
2004 victory and credited by observers on all sides as a remarkable
strategist, Karl Rove continues to make an invaluable contribution
to the leadership and vision of the Bush administration; now,
therefore, be it

RESOLVED, That the House of Representatives of the 79th Texas
Legislature, 3rd Called Session, hereby honor Karl Rove on his
roast at the 50th anniversary gala of the Headliners Club and
recognize him for the pivotal role he has played in shaping U.S.
politics and policies at the opening of the 21st century; and, be it
further

RESOLVED, That an official copy of this resolution be
prepared for Mr. Rove as an expression of high regard by the Texas
House of Representatives.

Thank goodness someone in the Texas House has the courage to stand up for Karl Rove!

The Special Session Begins

From the Houston Chronicle:

AUSTIN - Texas legislators convene today to again chase the elusive goal of cutting local property taxes and fixing the school finance system, but something is different from several previous efforts that failed.

This time, lawmakers and Gov. Rick Perry are facing a June 1 deadline, set by the Texas Supreme Court, to reach agreement or risk a cutoff of state funds to the public schools in an election year.

My dad is predicting a deal will eventually be reached. So are Charles Kuffner and Eye on Williamson County. Basically, that cutoff of state funds is just too barbed a whip for Texas' politicians to bear. They'll do something to get out from under it. But I'm betting they just kick it down the road a few years. We'll be back on school finance again within two regular sessions, I think.

A Few Things to Look At

Here's some recent blog activity I enjoyed over the weekend:

Karl-Thomas writes about Students with Courage taking on Rep. Lamar Smith on education, with video! I would dearly love to see John Courage in Congress. He would be so much better for central Texas than Lamar Smith.

Vince, meanwhile, takes apart the broken promises inherent in the Republican's 1994 "Contract On With America". It's a long article, but well worth the read.

John Aravosis has video of his appearance yesterday on Reliable Sources opposite Jonah Goldberg. Aravosis is exceptionally eloquent and manages partisanship very well, unlike most milquetoast lefties in the punditocracy. I'd love to see more of him on TV, and others who can emulate him.

There were many more, but I'm afraid I just don't have time to put them up. I'm exhausted, and I need my beauty rest. Big day tomorrow, don't you know?

April 17: The Big Three-Oh

Some people might think that 30 years on this planet would be enough. But not this blogger. No, my time here is just beginning. Today, ladies and gentlemen, is my thirtieth birthday, and I mean to make the most of it. How? By doing what I normally do. I'll write something for the blog. I'll go to work. Maybe I'll go out to lunch with some co-workers. I'll have a nice dinner with my husband, and we'll catch up on each other's days. We'll go for a walk around our neighborhood. Maybe some friends or relatives will call to wish me a happy birthday. I'll do some chores, catch up on the news, and maybe watch a movie. And then, the day will be over, and we'll go to bed. That's life, friends. And it's beautiful.

It's been a busy month. My anniversary, Passover, Easter, and my birthday, all coming in rapid succession. Not to mention all the friends and family celebrating birthdays this month. I just can't keep up with all the celebrating. I wish all of you the opportunity to experience a similar cornucopia of happy occasions. Truly, my cup overflows.

Anyway, so what do I get from the world for my birthday? Well, for starters, it's Monday. Thanks, Pope Gregory XIII. Second, it's the first day of the special session of the Texas legislature to deal with property taxes or school finance, or maybe gay marriage and redistricting again, I don't know. So thanks to Gov. Rick Perry. And, it also happens to be tax day, since April 15 was Saturday. Thanks, tax overhaul of 1954. Such a lovely assortment of birthday gifts the world has for me, isn't it? Maybe I'll be surprised and the legislature will use the first day of the special session to bring Patriot's Day to Texas, pushing Texans' tax day to Tuesday, out of respect for my special day. I think I'll hold out hope, just for fun.

Beyond that, it looks like the federal goverment has some more birthday goodies for me: Rumsfeld is staying, we've got plans to invade Iran (though Iran thinks we're too weak), and Congress is going to feint toward bigotry again by forcing another vote on the anti-gay Federal Marriage Amendment. (I'll predict it will fail again with 51 of the 67 needed votes in the Senate.)

Oh what a beautiful birthday is in store for me! I can't wait to see what else comes my way...

Rhode Island Supports Gay Marriage

A couple of days ago, this Greenberg Quinlan Rosner poll from Rhode Island was buried in a story I read. 365gay:

Support gay marriage 45%
Oppose gay marriage 39%

Take this with a grain of salt, since the poll was commissioned by Marriage Equality, a gay rights advocacy group. But still, it's a nice thing to see.

Happy Pesach!

Last night was the first night of Passover. I had family in town, so I had no time to blog. I'll probably be back later this evening. In the meantime, if you celebrate Passover, a boisterous and jolly "Chag sameach!" to you!

CA-50 Special Election Results

Fancine Busby won 43.92% of the vote in the single ballot nonpartisan contest, which just about ties what Kerry got in 2004. And because no one got over 50%, there will be a runoff with Republican Brian Bilbray in June. I expect that will be a close race.

Runoff Election Results

In today's Democratic primary runoff, all three races I voted in were won by women. Barbara Ann Radnofsky beat out name-rider Gene Kelly (not the famous one). And Valinda Bolton won against Jason Earle, son of Travis County District Attorney Ronnie Earle (of Tom DeLay prosecution fame) by a surprisingly large margin. The only candidate I officially endorsed who lost was Ben Grant, who lost the nomination for Lieutenant Governor to Maria Luisa Alvarado. Although I didn't vote for her, I fully intend to support her, and hope she defeats Lt. Gov. Dewhurst in November. Burnt Orange Report did better, getting victories for 5 out of 6 endorsed candidates. Congrats, BOR!

U. S. Senate: Barbara Ann Radnofosky 59.76% Gene Kelly 40.24% (99.88% of pcts)
Lt. Gov: Maria Luisa Alvarado 57.62% Ben Grant 42.38% (99.88% of pcts)
HD-047: Valinda Bolton 66.72% Jason Earle 34.85%

There were only a few other Democratic races in Texas. State Rep. Richard Raymond fended off a primary challenge in HD-42 from Mercurio Martinez Jr. And Borris Miles knocked off incumbent Rep. Al "Sexy Cheerleading" Edwards in HD-146 (congrats to Greg), causing Pink Dome to retire a hilarious photoshop. Ted Ankrum handily won the nomination for Congress in district 10, for a chance to oust Republican Rep. Michael McCaul.

CD-10: Ted Ankrum 70.80% Paul Foreman 29.20%
HD-042: Richard Raymond 57.76% Mercurio Martinez Jr. 42.24%
HD-146: Borris Miles 53.54% Al Edwards 46.46%

In the Republican primary runoff, there were a few more races to be decided. Of local interest, State Rep. Terry Keel, who retired from HD-47 to run for the Court of Criminal Appeals, failed to knock off incumbent Charles Holcomb. Meanwhile, back in HD-47, Bill Welch beat out Alex Castano to take on Valinda Bolton in November. My guess is that Republicans picked their best candidate, but, then again, I thought Rich Phillips was the guy to beat. Jeff Fleece beat out Don Zimmerman for the Republican nomination in HD-50, and will now be Rep. Mark Strama's opponent in November. Ken Mercer knocked off incumbent Dan Montgomery in State Board of Education district 5 from the right as well. And Will Wilson will be the Republican nominee for the 3rd Court of Appeals

Court of Criminal Appeals, Place 8: Charles Holcomb 53.78% Terry Keel 46.22% (99.6% pcts)
State Board of Education District 5: Ken Mercer 61.34% Dan Montgomery 38.66%
Third Court of Appeals, Place 3: Will Wilson 61.51% Bill Davidson 38.49% (98.75% pcts)
HD-047: Bill Welch 55.30% Alex Castano 44.70%
HD-050: Jeff Fleece 53.15% Don Zimmerman 46.85%

There were a bunch of other primary runoffs around the state for the Republicans. I've color coded Texas Parent PAC (anti- school vouchers) candidates green and Leininger-backed (pro- school vouchers) candidates purple. If I've missed any you know of, please note in the comments. It really looks like Texas Parent PAC is the winner of the night, winning 3 of 4 races, including knocking off incumbent Rep. Scott Campbell in HD-72. (Not to take anything away from the winning candidates themselves, of course.) And Wilson Aurbach won the right to take on Democratic U. S. Rep Eddie Bernice Johnson in Texas' 30th congressional district.

CD-30: Wilson Aurbach 60.70% Amir Omar 39.30%
HD-011: Larry K. Durrett 60.82% Brian Keith Walker 39.18%
HD-028: John Zerwas 53.13% David Melanson 46.87%
HD-054: Jimmie Don Aycock 57.87% Dale Hopkins 42.13%
HD-063: Tan Parker 50.38% Anne Lakusta 49.62%
HD-071: Susan King 50.50% Kevin Christian 49.50%
HD-072: Drew Darby 60.22% Scott Campbell 39.78%
HD-118: George Antuna 81.44% Steve Salyer 18.56%
HD-133: Jim Murphy 52.65% Michal Schofield 47.35%

Full Democratic results can be found here. Full Republican results can be found here.


Note: the pcts number in parentheses is the number of precincts reporting at blog time. If none listed, then there were 100% of precinct reporting.

Ditto BOR on Endorsements

Karl-Thomas released Burnt Orange Report's endorsements for today's primary runoff late last night, and I have to say I agree with each of their choices. I've already endorsed Barabara Ann Radnofsky, Ben Grant, and Valinda Bolton. While I did not endorse in CD-10, HD-42, or HD-146, and I'm still not officially, since I haven't been following those races closely, if I had, based on what I do know, I think I probably would have picked Ted Anrkum, Rep. Richard Raymond, and Borris Miles.

New York Gay Marriage Poll

In the state of New York, it looks like the people support gay marriage. Of course, the poll, by Global Strategy Group, was done for the state's largest LGBT civil rights organization, so take it with that grain of salt, but it's still great news! Via 365gay:

in favor of gay marriage: 53%
opposed to gay marriage: 38%

Unfortunately, I can't find the exact wording anywhere. But an indentical poll from 2004 put support at 47% and opposition at 46%. The most likely next governor, Democrat Elliot Spitzer, has endorsed gay marriage. I suspect if Democrats retake the state senate in November, which is a real possibility, we may have our first legislative legalization of gay marriage there.

April 11 -- Election Day

Today is election day here in Texas. We've got a primary runoff in both parties. Where do you go to vote? Well, I'm glad you asked. First, go to the Voter Registrar's site and use their voter search to find your precinct number. Or you can call them at 854-9473. Your precinct number is also printed on your voter registration card. Then, use the Travis County Clerk's handy table of polling places to look up where to vote for your precinct. Polls are open 7 am to 7 pm. You can find sample ballots for Democrats here and Republicans here.

What if you didn't vote in the primary? Can you still vote in the runoff? The answer is yes! According to the Texas Democratic Party, you can vote in the Democratic primary runoff as long as you didn't vote in the Republican primary. I presume the opposite is true for the Republican primary runoff. That means if you didn't vote in either primary, you can vote in either runoff.

Please get out there and vote. This is your chance to influence the direction of your party and the state. I know you can do it!

(Incidently, this is also an election day out in California's 50th district, where Democrat Francine Busby is trying to get over 50% of the vote in an open primary single ballot non-partisan contest against multiple Republicans, as well as another Democrat and several minor party candidates. This is corrupt former Republican Rep. Duke Cunningham's seat. Charlie Cook lists CA-50 as "Leans Republican". If Busby comes close to 50% here, it will be seen as yet another sign of a Democratic tidal wave building for November.)

Immigration Rally Photo Roundup

In case you missed it, today (well, yesterday technically) was a day of pro-immigration rallies across America. I, unfortunately, missed it all. You guys know how much I love taking my camera to political events and exercising my criminally poor photography skills. And I know how much you love to point and laugh at the hideous results. Well, never fear, a few other industrious journalists and bloggers have taken the time to create or collect photos (not hideous at all -- actually quite good) from the rallies in their cities. Check them out:

Pink Dome
Dos Centavos
Latinos For Texas *ADDED 4/11/06*
Austin American-Statesman
MyDD
Eschaton
AMERICAblog

Does This Mean I Could Be Paid?

I received the most flattering comment I've ever received on this site this weekend, in response to my post TX-HD-047: Candidate Forum Thoughts:

Anonymous said...

I was just wondering "How much did Welch pay you?" Just curious??

Monday, April 10, 2006 12:34:51 AM

The answer I want to give, with a delirious smirk: "Why? How much do you think I could have got?"

Wow. You know you've made it in blogging when someone falsely accuses you of working for a campaign. I mean, come on... how much did Welch pay me? That's absolutely the wrong question. The right question would be "How much did Valinda Bolton pay you?" And the answer would be "nothing". I have yet to receive a single cent from my blog. One day, I may break down and put some blog ads up, but for now, this baby's an endeavor of love!

Top Tier Challengers

Charlie Cook says both parties are suffering from a shortage of top-tier challengers this year in an article from April 4. In that article, he describes the qualtiies of a top-tier challenger (numbering and emphasis mine):

But what, exactly, makes someone a top-tier challenger? A truly promising candidate possesses most -- if not all -- of the following characteristics: (1) He or she has run and won competitive races; (2) has stature and name recognition in at least one significant part of the district; (3) has an interesting and/or compelling personality and life story; (4) understands campaigns and what it takes to win; (5) is a proven fundraiser; (6) has a sufficiently thick skin to withstand darts from the other side; and (7) is enough of a scrapper to fight back as hard as necessary.

In contrast, second-tier candidates are those who have a few of those traits, but not most of them. And third-tier competitors tend to have, at most, only one or two of those key attributes.

When Charlie Cook ranks races around the country, he definitely takes challenger quality into account. Ideally I would as well for my rankings, but there's a problem. As an occasional amateur self-styled analyst, I just don't have that information for every race, so I wouldn't be able to apply challenger quality as a universal condition. Except maybe for the U. S. Senate and the governors' races, where candidates are well-known enough that I could figure it out. At least, I tried to last time I ranked those races. But, I just don't have that information for every U. S. House, Texas House and Texas Senate race. I wonder if I should just use it for races I do know about?

Assorted Tidbits

Immigration Reform is Dead For Now

"Politics" seems to have blocked the immigration bill in the Senate. Whenever someone says "politics" prevented Congress from doing something, it's a little like saying, "work" prevented me from doing my job. But whatever. It's all well and good for Republicans to blame their opposition for their failures, but the fact remains that they control all three branches of government, and they're responsible for governing. If they can't do it, they shouldn't be in power.

Here are some thoughts on immigration that I don't feel like keeping to myself:

1. I like it. I think it makes America stronger.
2. It should be through legal channels.
3. To move it into legal channels, you need to crack down on businesses who are hiring illegal immigrants, and offer some sort of legal program for immigrants to participate in.
4. It's important to have control of our borders. We should strengthen our border patrols. But not with vigilantes. And any crackdown on illegal immigration needs to be mitigated by an expansion of legal immigration.
5. To sum up my feelings: I think immigration from Central and South America strengthens our economy and culture, but the idea that Al Qaeda agents could get in through our porous border makes me nervous.

TX-22 Will Be Vacant

Charles Kuffner has a great post about where things stand. In light of DeLay's resignation, Charlie Cook has moved TX-22 from "Tossup" to "Likely Republican", which I think may be one category too far. Here's the part I can't get over: DeLay is out of Congress. He won't be running again, which means he'll be out at least until 2008. By 2008, if he's somehow, miraculously not in prison, his incumbency advantage will be mostly gone. Maybe it's too much to hope he'll be out of politics for good, but I'm really really hoping.


California to Teach LGBT History in School

This would be nice. I think it's important to show the role minorities play in history. Especially for minorities who tend to be whitewashed out of history to begin with.


Planets Are Forming Everywhere

Even around neutron stars after supernovae. I'm adjusting the f_p in my Drake Equation later tonight with a warm blanket and hot chocolate. One day, the aliens will pick me. You'll see. You'll all see...


I Love Charts

Thanks to Karl-Thomas at Burnt Orange Report for pointing me to this excellent chart showing every historical Texas delegation to Congress since 1929. Some familiar names are bound to pop out to you, including: former Presidents George H. W. Bush (TX-07) and Lyndon Baines Johnson (TX-10), nearly-Associate Supreme Court Justice Homer Thornberry (TX-10), former Speaker of the House Sam Rayburn (TX-04), former Senators Phil Gramm (TX-06), Lloyd Bentsen (TX-15), former gubernatorial candidate Bob Gammage (TX-22), and Rep. Barbara Jordan (TX-18), and Rep Jake Pickle (TX-10), both of whom you should recognize, even if you don't.


Bush Has Gas Problems

Speaking of charts, Pollkatz has a great chart comparing Bush's approval rating to the price of gasoline. There's some correlation there certainly. Not necessarily causation though. But still, it's a chart. And, as I said, I love charts.


It Was Only a Matter of Time

Blogging can consume one's life energy and time until you even propose to your sweetheart on a blog. Someone else's blog, even. I find it very endearing, and send my heartfelt congratulations to the newly engaged. But isn't this also evidence that blogs have great power to engross people that other media don't have?


Christians Care to Comment?

Judas is apparently just misunderstood, according to newly unearthed documents. As a Jewish person, I have no particular interest here, except a slight curiosity about how faiths handle newly discovered documents that challenge a part of their narrative. And I suppose it does add a new dimension to Jesus Christ Superstar...

Fond Memories of Tom DeLay

It's my anniversary today, so not much time to post. In the meantime, check out Campus Progress' top ten DeLay quotes. This brings back the good old days:

1. “Nothing is more important in the face of a war than cutting taxes.” – Those famous DeLay priorities. (And here we thought it would be “providing armor” or “having an exit strategy.”)

2. “I AM the federal government.” – Smokin’ Tom to a staffer, after being told he wasn’t allowed to puff on his cigar in a federal building.

...

6. “Now tell me the truth boys, is this kind of fun?”— DeLay to children living in the Astrodome during Hurricane Katrina

There's more, of course. Check it out.

Have I Ever Mentioned...?

... how much I like Sen. Russ Feingold (D-WI)? Apparently, he's not afraid to say he supports full marriage equality. Raw Story:

United States Senator Russ Feingold this week indicated that he not only opposes a constitutional amendment in Wisconsin to ban gay marriage and civil unions, but in fact, favors full marriage rights for gay and lesbian couples.

Calling such a ban a "mean-spirited attempt to divide Wisconsin," Feingold urged constituents at a Paddock Lake "listening session" not to support it.

He went on to argue not just for civil unions, but gay marriage.

"Gay and lesbian couples should be able to marry and have access to the same rights, privileges and benefits that straight couples currently enjoy." Feingold went on to add, "[This] kind of discrimination ... has no place in our laws, especially in a progressive state like Wisconsin. The time has come to end this discrimination and the politics of divisiveness that has become part of this issue."

The Senator went on to argue that religious groups do not have to recognize any civil marriage.

Of course, it's still way too early, but he's making it very difficult for me to consider supporting anyone else in the 2008 Democratic primary...

Rasmussen Poll Dump

It's been a while since I've done one of these...

The close Senate races, with my guess on the likely nominee where there's a contest:

VA-Sen: Allen (R) 54% Webb (D) 30%
AZ-Sen: Kyl (R) 56% Pederson (D) 33%
RI-Sen: Chafee (R) 50% Whitehouse (D) 38%
TN-Sen: Hilleary (R) 43% Ford (D) 35% (open seat)
OH-Sen: DeWine (R) 45% Brown (D) 42%
MO-Sen: McCaskill (D) 43% Talent (R) 40%
MT-Sen: Morrison (D) 48% Burns (R) 43%
PA-Sen: Casey (D) 50% Santorum (R) 41%

NJ-Sen: Kean (R) 41% Menendez (D) 39%
MN-Sen: Klobuchar (D) 45% Kennedy (R) 42% (open seat)
FL-Sen: Nelson (D) 49% Harris (R) 40%
WA-Sen: Cantwell (D) 49% McGavick (R) 36%
MD-Sen: Cardin (D) 49% Steele (R) 35% (open seat)
MI-Sen: Stabenow (D) 54% Bouchard (R) 33%
NE-Sen: Nelson (D) 52% Ricketts (R) 29%
WV-Sen: Byrd (D) 58% Raese (R) 32%
VT-Sen: Sanders (I) 70% Tarrant (R) 25% (open seat)

Generally speaking, incumbents under 50%, even if they're ahead of their opponent -- DeWine (R-OH), Cantwell (D-WA), Nelson (D-FL) -- are considered vulnerable because undecided voters tend to break toward challengers. But leaving that aside for a moment, Rasmussen seems to be indicating a pickup of about 3 for Democrats and 1 for Republicans -- a net gain of 2 seats. Democrats would need to pick up 6 seats to control the Senate.

I couldn't find a poll for Sen. John Ensign (R) of Nevada, but I expect he's in about the same boat as Sen. Allen of Virginia. The Rhode Island, Vermont and Nebraska polls were probably a little old, but they're all I could find on the site. Also, the Nebraska poll didn't include the likely Republican nominee in my opinion, Don Stenberg.

Governors:

VT-Gov: Douglas (R) 54% Parker (D) 34%
AL-Gov: Riley (R) 53% Baxley (D) 37%
TX-Gov: Perry (R) 40% Strayhorn (I) 31% Bell (D) 13% Friedman (I) 9%
SC-Gov: Sanford (R) 49% Moore (D) 36%
GA-Gov: Perdue (R) 49% Cox (D) 41%
RI-Gov: (no poll available, but could be vulnerable)
AK-Gov: (no poll available, but could be vulnerable)
MD-Gov: Ehrlich (R) 47% O'Malley (D) 42%
NV-Gov: Gibbons (R) 43% Gibson (D) 38% (open seat)
FL-Gov: Crist (R) 42% Davis (D) 37% (open seat)
CO-Gov: Ritter (D) 41% Beauprez (R) 40% (open seat)
CA-Gov: Angelides (D) 45% Schwarzenegger (R) 44%
MN-Gov: Hatch (D) 45% Pawalenty (R) 40%
MA-Gov: Reilly (D) 38% Healey (R) 27% Mihos (I) 19% (open seat)
AR-Gov: Beebe (D) 48% Hutchinson (R) 38% (open seat)
OH-Gov: Strickland (D) 50% Blackwell (R) 40% (open seat)
NY-Gov: (no poll available, Democrat Elliot Spitzer will probably win) (open seat)

ME-Gov: Emery (R) 39% Baldacci (D) 37%
IL-Gov: Topinka (R) 43% Blagojevich (D) 41%
MI-Gov: Granholm (D) 44% DeVos (R) 44%
IA-Gov: Culver (D) 40% Nussle (R) 38% (open seat)
PA-Gov: Rendell (D) 44% Swann(R) 41%
WI-Gov: Doyle (D) 45% Green (R) 40%
KS-Gov: Sebelius (D) 45% Barnett (R) 37%
OK-Gov: (no poll available, but could be vulnerable)
OR-Gov: Kulongoski (D) 51% Mannix (R) 36%
AZ-Gov: Napolitano (D) 54% Goldwater (R) 34%

(no poll available, fairly safe Republican hold: CT, HI, ID, NE, SD)
(no poll available, fairly safe Democratic hold: NM, TN, WY, NH)

Looks like Rasmussen is indicating 7 Democratic pickups and 2 Republican pickups. That would mean a 27-23 Democratic edge in governorships. Personally, I suspect the pickup will be more for Democrats, but who knows.

Early Voting for Texas Primary Runoff Election

All this week is early voting for the Texas primary runoff election. I voted yesterday at lunch at the neighborhood Randalls. Early voting is wonderful because you can go to whichever polling place is most convenient for you, instead of a single specific designated polling place for your precinct, and because there are shorter lines.

As you read this, you might be wondering where you, too, can vote early this week. Well, wonder no more! The Travis County Clerk tells you where you can vote, 7 am to 7 pm, any day this week until Friday:

Central

• Randalls 35th Street
  1500 West 35th Street
  
• Travis County Courthouse
  1000 Guadalupe Street, 1st floor
  
• Travis County Airport Boulevard Offices
  5501 Airport Boulevard
  
• Fiesta Mart
  3909 North IH35 @ Delwood
  
• University of Texas
  Flawn Academic Center lobby, West Mall
  

East

• HEB East 7th and Pleasant Valley
  2701 East 7th Street @ Pleasant Valley (temp. bldg. in parking lot)
  
• Northeast Health Center at the Springdale Shopping Center
  7112 Ed Bluestein Boulevard, Suite 155
  

North

• Randalls Research and Braker
  10900-D Research Boulevard @ Braker
  

Northeast

• Albertson's North Lamar and Braker
  11331 North Lamar Boulevard @ Braker (temp. bldg. in parking lot)
  
• County Tax Office Pflugerville
  15822 Foothill Farms Loop, just off Pecan Street, Pflugerville
  

Northwest

• HEB Four Points 620 and 2222
  7301 FM 620 North @ RR 2222 (temp. bldg. in parking lot)
  

South

• Randalls Ben White and Manchaca
  2025 West Ben White Boulevard @ Manchaca
  
• HEB South Congress and Oltorf
  2400 South Congress Avenue @ Oltorf (temp. bldg. in parking lot)
  

Southeast

• Albertsons Stassney
  5510 South IH35 @ Stassney
  
• Albertson's Riverside and Pleasant Valley
  1819 South Pleasant Valley Road @ Riverside (temp. bldg. in parking lot)
  

Southwest

• Randalls Brodie and Slaughter
  9911 Brodie Lane @ Slaughter
  
• Randalls South Mopac and William Cannon
  6600 South Mopac Expressway @ William Cannon
  

West

• Randalls Lakeway
  2303 RR 620 South
  
• Flagship Randalls on Bee Caves Road
  3300 Bee Caves Road

In addition, a couple places are open 8 am to 9 pm (instead of 7 to 7):

North

• Highland Mall
  6001 Airport Boulevard, lower level by JCPenney
  
• Northcross Mall
  2525 West Anderson Lane, across from Veranda

The helpful county clerk also tells you what you need to vote:

How can I vote early?

Registered voters can vote with a voter registration card, driver’s license or any official photo ID, birth certificate, United States citizenship papers or passport, a copy of a current utility bill, bank statement or other official document that shows the name and address of the voter.

NOTE TO FIRST-TIME VOTERS: If you are a first-time voter in Travis County who registered to vote by mail and did not previously provide a copy of ID, you must show a form of ID other than a Voter Registration Certificate before voting.

Note that if you choose to vote on election day, next Tuesday April 11, instead of voting early, you must vote at your designated polling place. You can find your precinct number at the Voter Registrar's site, and then check against this list to find you where you vote on the 11th. Sample ballots for the Republican and Democratic primaries can be found here and here.

See you at the polls!

TX-21: Tom DeLay to Drop Out

Darnit. Bush won this district 61%-39% in 2004 and 66% to 33% in 2000. DeLay dropping out will make it a bit harder to pickup his seat. CNN:

Rep. Tom DeLay will drop out of his re-election race, two Republican congressional sources told CNN Monday.

DeLay was forced to step down as House majority leader last year after being indicted in his home state of Texas.

DeLay told Time magazine Monday that he and his wife, Christine, had been prepared for an election battle, but that he decided Wednesday to spare his suburban Houston district the mudfest to come.

He did it for his district. Yeah, right.

Question: What's the procedure for getting a new candidate on the ballot in Texas after the candidate who won the primary drops out? And can Democrats do this for Texas state senate district 18?

UPDATE: It looks like others have been thinking about this: Swing State Project, DeLay v World, Daily Kos, Burnt Orange Report, and Off the Kuff. The upshot seems to be that DeLay can be replaced on the ballot.

Gene Kelly Speaks -- From Beyond the Grave!

Kudos to Vince from Capitol Annex for unearthing an actual interview with name-parasite Gene Kelly. I couldn't find it on Capitol Annex, but he did post it on Burnt Orange Report. Here's the quote from Kelly that got my blood boiling:

You know, a lot of voters are elderly, like me, and they'll see that name and they just might think, when they're filling out their mail-in ballot at the nursing home or wherever, they might have a memory lapse, you know, and think the 'real' Gene Kelly's running for office. That'll happen one day, mark my words, and I'll get elected. My neighbor says I'm depending on "collective Alzheimers' of the Masses" to get elected. And, I guess he's right! [Laughs]

Grr... For those of you who might not know, Gene Kelly is a perennial candidate who refuses to campaign. He just hopes to hoodwink people into thinking they're voting for the dancer Gene Kelly (of Singing in the Rain fame), and thereby get into office. His entire campaign strategy is fraud. It's abominable, really. This year, he's running against Barbara Ann Radnofsky in the Democratic primary for the chance to run against Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison in November.

John Kelso has a great article lampooning Kelly in the Statesman today:

Personally, I don't think people vote for Gene Kelly because they confuse him with the famous dancer.

I think they vote for him because they're stupid and don't know the candidates.

Still, at a news conference, Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Barbara Ann Radnofsky challenged Gene Kelly to a dance-off.

"We said we'd be happy to decide the election in a dance contest if Mr. Kelly wanted to put his feet where his mouth is," said Seth Davidson, Radnofsky's campaign manager.

Kelly didn't respond to the challenge. I tried to call Gene Kelly, but nobody answered. Maybe he was out hoofing it with Fred Astaire.

I'm going to be so embarrassed and despondent if Kelly beats Radnofsky in the primary. Very rarely do I come across a Democrat that I wouldn't support, should they win in the primary. But this is one of those candidates. How can I vote for someone who is overtly trying to deceive people in order to gain power?

UPDATE: Damn you, Vince Leibowitz! The "interview" was an April Fools' joke, and not real at all. And a very meticulously crafted joke at that. My apologies everyone. However, my take on Kelly remains that he is a running a campaign based on fraud, and I would not support him for Senate.