A Hypothetical Race

Imagine a swing state. For the sake of a realistic-sounding scenario, let's say Wisconsin. In this scenario, Wisconsin Democrats control the trifecta. The last two gubernatorial elections were close.

The two-term Democratic governor James McClintock is immensely unpopular, and has an approval rating of 36%. Because he's term-limited, the jockeying to replace him is already beginning.

Georgia Rush, the controversial wife of the popular Republican former two-term governor has raised substantial money and is considered the front-runner for the Republican nomination. She herself is a leading state senator from a wealthy conservative district. Recent statewide polling puts her numbers at: Favorable: 52% Unfavorable: 43%

On the Democratic side, a maverick state senator Hal Quentin who lost in the primary against Gov. McClintock six years ago is the front-runner for the nomination. Recent statewide polling puts his numbers at: Favorable: 55% Unfavorable: 22%

Early polling on these matchups indicates Quentin is leading:

Pollster #1 (news organization)
Hal Quentin (D) 44%
Georgia Rush (R) 37%

Pollster #2 (bipartisan consulting organization)
Hal Quentin (D) 44%
Georgia Rush (R) 39%

Pollster #3 (Democratic-leaning pollster)
Hal Quentin (D) 50%
Georgia Rush (R) 40%

It's two years until the election. The candidates are both competetive fundraisers. Question: is it possible for Georgia Rush to win, or are her unfavorables (43%) high enough to make it out of the question? I don't have enough experience to know the answer, but my gut says Hal Quentin's numbers are not so good as to put it out of the question.

Obviously, I'm getting at something else here. I'll have more on that later.