Rasmussen Poll Dump

It's been a while since I've done one of these...

The close Senate races, with my guess on the likely nominee where there's a contest:

VA-Sen: Allen (R) 54% Webb (D) 30%
AZ-Sen: Kyl (R) 56% Pederson (D) 33%
RI-Sen: Chafee (R) 50% Whitehouse (D) 38%
TN-Sen: Hilleary (R) 43% Ford (D) 35% (open seat)
OH-Sen: DeWine (R) 45% Brown (D) 42%
MO-Sen: McCaskill (D) 43% Talent (R) 40%
MT-Sen: Morrison (D) 48% Burns (R) 43%
PA-Sen: Casey (D) 50% Santorum (R) 41%

NJ-Sen: Kean (R) 41% Menendez (D) 39%
MN-Sen: Klobuchar (D) 45% Kennedy (R) 42% (open seat)
FL-Sen: Nelson (D) 49% Harris (R) 40%
WA-Sen: Cantwell (D) 49% McGavick (R) 36%
MD-Sen: Cardin (D) 49% Steele (R) 35% (open seat)
MI-Sen: Stabenow (D) 54% Bouchard (R) 33%
NE-Sen: Nelson (D) 52% Ricketts (R) 29%
WV-Sen: Byrd (D) 58% Raese (R) 32%
VT-Sen: Sanders (I) 70% Tarrant (R) 25% (open seat)

Generally speaking, incumbents under 50%, even if they're ahead of their opponent -- DeWine (R-OH), Cantwell (D-WA), Nelson (D-FL) -- are considered vulnerable because undecided voters tend to break toward challengers. But leaving that aside for a moment, Rasmussen seems to be indicating a pickup of about 3 for Democrats and 1 for Republicans -- a net gain of 2 seats. Democrats would need to pick up 6 seats to control the Senate.

I couldn't find a poll for Sen. John Ensign (R) of Nevada, but I expect he's in about the same boat as Sen. Allen of Virginia. The Rhode Island, Vermont and Nebraska polls were probably a little old, but they're all I could find on the site. Also, the Nebraska poll didn't include the likely Republican nominee in my opinion, Don Stenberg.

Governors:

VT-Gov: Douglas (R) 54% Parker (D) 34%
AL-Gov: Riley (R) 53% Baxley (D) 37%
TX-Gov: Perry (R) 40% Strayhorn (I) 31% Bell (D) 13% Friedman (I) 9%
SC-Gov: Sanford (R) 49% Moore (D) 36%
GA-Gov: Perdue (R) 49% Cox (D) 41%
RI-Gov: (no poll available, but could be vulnerable)
AK-Gov: (no poll available, but could be vulnerable)
MD-Gov: Ehrlich (R) 47% O'Malley (D) 42%
NV-Gov: Gibbons (R) 43% Gibson (D) 38% (open seat)
FL-Gov: Crist (R) 42% Davis (D) 37% (open seat)
CO-Gov: Ritter (D) 41% Beauprez (R) 40% (open seat)
CA-Gov: Angelides (D) 45% Schwarzenegger (R) 44%
MN-Gov: Hatch (D) 45% Pawalenty (R) 40%
MA-Gov: Reilly (D) 38% Healey (R) 27% Mihos (I) 19% (open seat)
AR-Gov: Beebe (D) 48% Hutchinson (R) 38% (open seat)
OH-Gov: Strickland (D) 50% Blackwell (R) 40% (open seat)
NY-Gov: (no poll available, Democrat Elliot Spitzer will probably win) (open seat)

ME-Gov: Emery (R) 39% Baldacci (D) 37%
IL-Gov: Topinka (R) 43% Blagojevich (D) 41%
MI-Gov: Granholm (D) 44% DeVos (R) 44%
IA-Gov: Culver (D) 40% Nussle (R) 38% (open seat)
PA-Gov: Rendell (D) 44% Swann(R) 41%
WI-Gov: Doyle (D) 45% Green (R) 40%
KS-Gov: Sebelius (D) 45% Barnett (R) 37%
OK-Gov: (no poll available, but could be vulnerable)
OR-Gov: Kulongoski (D) 51% Mannix (R) 36%
AZ-Gov: Napolitano (D) 54% Goldwater (R) 34%

(no poll available, fairly safe Republican hold: CT, HI, ID, NE, SD)
(no poll available, fairly safe Democratic hold: NM, TN, WY, NH)

Looks like Rasmussen is indicating 7 Democratic pickups and 2 Republican pickups. That would mean a 27-23 Democratic edge in governorships. Personally, I suspect the pickup will be more for Democrats, but who knows.