TX-28: Rodriguez Gains Ground On Cuellar
RD) 39 (45)
Rodriguez (D) 34 (30)
Morales (D) 8
The numbers in parentheses are from the previous poll in October of last year, which was before Victor Morales entered the race. As you can see the gap has narrowed. I think the momentum is on Rodriguez's side. Money, media, and organization all look like they're going his way. The primary is Tuesday, March 7, but if no one breaks 50% (as appears likely), the race goes to a runoff April 11. Kos thinks that would still be ok for Rodriguez:
The other suggestion, this one not so good, is that Morales is drawing enough support to potentially kick this thing into a runoff. In other words, another month of this stuff. Now a runoff would shift the advantage toward Ciro. Morales voters are already disinclined to vote for the incumbent, and Texas special elections usually draw higher turnouts and Bexar county will likely feature several of them. And the trends are all moving Ciro's way.
But it'd be nice if Rodriguez could close the deal on the 7th.