Texas State Senate Rankings - Mar 27

The primaries (except the runoffs) are over. As such, I thought it might be a good time to update my state legislature rankings. I'll start with the state senate, which ends up being pretty boring:

Solid Democratic Hold
Ellis (SD-13)
Whitmire (SD-15)
Shapleigh (SD-29)
SD-14 Open (Barrientos)

Likely Democratic Hold
SD-19 Open (Madla)

Leans Democratic Hold
(none)

Democratic-Held Tossup
SD-18 Open (Armbrister)

Republican-Held Tossup
(none)

Leans Republican Hold
Eltife (SD-01)

Likely Republican Hold
(none)

Solid Republican Hold
Deuell (SD-02)
SD-03 Open (Staples)
Ogden (SD-05)
SD-07 Open (Lindsay)
Shapiro (SD-08)
Nelson (SD-12)
Janek (SD-17)
Averitt (SD-22)
Wentworth (SD-25)

The rules are this: One point of vulnerability each to incumbents for being a freshman, being held to under 55% of the vote in the last election, and representing a district whose partisanship is opposite to theirs, using the 2002 Sharp/Dewhurst race to distinguish. Open seats start out as tossups. If one party had over 55% in the Sharp/Dewhurst race, the seat moves one slot in that party's direction. 60% moves 2 slots. 65% moves the district all the way to safe. Races where only one party put up a candidate to run, are obviously solid for that party. I mean, I suppose a Libertarian could win... but we'll just pretend there's no chance of that for.. um.. simplicity's sake.

Again, I must emphasize that I am a complete amateur with no insider knowledge of any of these races. If anyone has a better idea how to rank the races, please let me know in comments.

State Senate Rankings: Dec 5, 2006; Jan 17, 2006
State House Rankings: Dec 8, 2005; Jan 18, 2006; Feb 15, 2006