Texas State House Rankings Update, Mar 28
Now that the primaries are over, here are my new Texas State House district vulnerability rankings:
Incumbents' vulnerability is calculated as follows: freshmen incumbents, incumbents whose last election was close, and incumbents who represent districts that lean to the opposing party get one point of vulnerability for each category they belong to. I'm using QR's 2002 Dewhurst/Sharp numbers to determine a district's partisan leaning. Incumbents who are not being challenged in November are Safe Holds. Safe Holds are not display -- there are too many, and it would clutter up the display.
So to repeat a past example, Hubert Vo (D-HD-149) is a freshman, who won a close election last time, and occupies a district of opposite partisanship, so he ranks as a tossup.
For open seats, if the party in power has less than 55% in the Dewhurst-Sharp numbers, the seat is a Tossup. Less than 60% puts the seat at Leans Hold, while less than 65% puts the seat at Likely Hold. Any more than that, and the seat is a Safe Hold. The most vulnerable a seat can be is Tossup, as long as both parties are challenging control.
Not much changed over last time. England's win in HD-106 actually did not change the vulnerability level. He's a freshman who won a close race, which leaves the seat at Leans Hold. Grusendorf's primary loss puts his seat in play, but only barely due to its highly Republican character. Uresti's open seat was actually omitted from the previous rankings in error.
Previous State House Rankings: Dec 8, 2005; Jan 18, 2006; Feb 15, 2006
Previous State Senate Rankings: Dec 5, 2006; Jan 17, 2006; Mar 27, 2006
Likely Democratic Hold
Homer (HD-003)
McReynolds (HD-012)
HD-038 Open (Solis)
Rose (HD-045)
Howard (HD-048)
Leibowitz (HD-117)
Hernandez (HD-143)
Leans Democratic Hold
Hopson (HD-011)
Cook (HD-017)
Toureilles (HD-035)
Strama (HD-050)
Farbee (HD-069)
HD-118 Open (Uresti)
Democratic-Held Tossup
HD-085 Open (Laney)
Vo (HD-149)
Republican-Held Tossup
HD-047 Open (Keel)
Leans Republican Hold
HD-054 Open (Hupp)
Anderson (HD-056)
England (HD-106)
HD-126 Open (Hamnic)
Likely Republican Hold
Seaman (HD-032)
Orr (HD-058)
Phillips (HD-062)
HD-071 Open (Hunter)
HD-091 Open (Griggs)
HD-094 Open (Grusendorf)
Goolsby (HD-102)
HD-133 Open (Nixon)
Wong (HD-134)
Incumbents' vulnerability is calculated as follows: freshmen incumbents, incumbents whose last election was close, and incumbents who represent districts that lean to the opposing party get one point of vulnerability for each category they belong to. I'm using QR's 2002 Dewhurst/Sharp numbers to determine a district's partisan leaning. Incumbents who are not being challenged in November are Safe Holds. Safe Holds are not display -- there are too many, and it would clutter up the display.
So to repeat a past example, Hubert Vo (D-HD-149) is a freshman, who won a close election last time, and occupies a district of opposite partisanship, so he ranks as a tossup.
For open seats, if the party in power has less than 55% in the Dewhurst-Sharp numbers, the seat is a Tossup. Less than 60% puts the seat at Leans Hold, while less than 65% puts the seat at Likely Hold. Any more than that, and the seat is a Safe Hold. The most vulnerable a seat can be is Tossup, as long as both parties are challenging control.
Not much changed over last time. England's win in HD-106 actually did not change the vulnerability level. He's a freshman who won a close race, which leaves the seat at Leans Hold. Grusendorf's primary loss puts his seat in play, but only barely due to its highly Republican character. Uresti's open seat was actually omitted from the previous rankings in error.
Previous State House Rankings: Dec 8, 2005; Jan 18, 2006; Feb 15, 2006
Previous State Senate Rankings: Dec 5, 2006; Jan 17, 2006; Mar 27, 2006
posted by Abram | 6:20 PM
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