The Texas Republican Schoolyard Brawl

There's an all-out war in the Texas Republican Party over education, and Democrats are positioned to exploit it. Somewhat. Obviously, the most noteworthy manifestation of the war is Republican-turned-independent Comptroller Carole Keeton Strayhorn's clear line of attack on Gov. Rick Perry over his failure to get any kind of school finance plan out of the legislature. But there's another important aspect that could lead to an improved opportunity for Texas Democrats to take back the state house of representatives.

Dr. James Leininger, a San Antonio school vouchers advocate, is aggressively funding primary challenges to Republicans who don't support vouchers. The Leininger 5 are:

	Leininger
Challenger	money	Incumbent
Chris Hatley	$50,384	Rep. Charlie Geren, R-Fort Worth
Van Wilson	$130,156	Rep. Delwin Jones, R-Lubbock
Wayne Christian	$160,669	Rep. Roy Blake, R-Nacogdoches
Mark Williams	$166,527	Rep. Tommy Merritt, R-Longview
Nathan Macias	$182,911	Rep. Carter Casteel, R-New Braunfels

On the other side, is the Texas Parent PAC, which is funding primary challengers to Republican supporters of school vouchers, including Reps. Kent Grusendorf, Betty Brown, and David Swinford. The Texas Parent PAC is also supporting some open seat candidates, and the incumbents being challenged by Dr. Leininger's candidates.

Some of these primary races are in districts where Democrats don't have a chance, but others are decidedly not. Here's what happens to the districts' vulnerability rankings in my estimation should the incumbent be knocked out in the primary:

HD-004 Betty Brown -- Solid Republican => Leans Republican
HD-007 Tommy Merritt -- Solid Republican => Likely Republican
HD-009 Roy Blake, Jr. -- no Democratic opposition
HD-073 Carter Casteel -- no Democratic opposition
HD-083 Delwin Jones -- Solid Republican => Solid Republican
HD-087 David Swinford -- no Democratic opposition
HD-094 Kent Grusendorf -- Solid Republican => Likely Republican
HD-099 Charlie Geren -- Solid Republican => Likely Republican

As you can see, there are 4 races (about half) Republicans may be putting into play with this dangerous game of brinkmanship: HD-099, HD-094, HD-007, and especially HD-004. Now I don't know that much about these districts' Democratic candidates. Some may be better than others. But all of them would rather face a primary challenger than an entrenched incumbent I think. And all of them would rather face an opponent that was run through a wringer and dirtied up a bit too. And these are only the Texas Parent PAC and Leininger-funded primary challenges. There are a few others on the Republican side that could make things more favorable for Democrats as well.

Primaries are risky. They can either help you or hurt you depending on how the primary is run. If both sides remain civil, and it raises the party's profile, it helps. That happened in the Democratic presidential primary in 2004. If, on the other hand, the candidates start throwing mud, and the campaign becomes bitterly personal, it hurts. That's what has happened in the Ohio Senate Democratic primary this year with candidates Rep. Sherrod Brown and Major Paul Hackett. The Texas Republican Schoolyard Brawl is looking more and more like the latter.

My latest State House rankings: Feb 15, 2005.

Popcorn, anyone?

UPDATE: I feel obligated to point out that all of the rankings changes that could occur as a result of the Republican education civil war still at best leave the ranking at "Leans Republican". Why should I be excited about that? Well, there's always the chance that those races increase in competetiveness. But the main reason I'm excited is because this feels like it will be a Democratic year to me. And I have a sort of giddiness about that, leading me to feel a bit more optimistic that the "Leans Republican" category may not lean as Republican as it would in normal years. But then again, what do I really know?