State Senate Rankings Update
In light of the passing of the deadline to file for office, I thought it's about time to update by analysis of the Texas House and Senate for 2006. The complete list of Democrats who filed and Republicans who filed can be found on the state parties' websites. I'll have the new State House rankings soon. Here's the new State Senate rankings:
I would like to emphasize that I am a complete amateur, so please take these rankings with an oversized grain of salt. But no one else I've seen has compiled a chart like this for the Texas State Senate or House, so I thought I might try to show people the bigger picture here. It really looks like the Republicans have 1 good opportunity to pick up a seat, while Democrats have 1 good opportunity, and 2 less-good opportunities. So the net change in the State Senate is likely to be anywhere from Republicans picking up 1 seat, to Democrats picking up 3 seats. With a current balance of 19 Reps to 12 Dems, we could end up anywhere from 20-11 to 16-15, but in all conceivable cases, Republicans appear set to hold on to control of the Texas State Senate.
UPDATE: SD-03 was mistakenly "Republican-Held Tossup" because I mistakenly thought a Democratic candidate was contesting the seat. My error was brought to my attention in the comments, and I have moved SD-03 to "Solid Republican Hold". As a result, Democrats seem to have only 2 less-good opportunities, while Republicans have an excellent opportunity to pick up SD-18.
Solid Democratic Hold
Ellis (SD-13)
Whitmire (SD-15)
Madla (SD-19)
Shapleigh (SD-29)
SD-14 Open (Barrientos)
Democratic-Held Tossup
SD-18 Open (Armbrister)
Leans Republican Hold
Eltife (SD-01)
SD-07 Open (Lindsay)
Solid Republican Hold
Deuell (SD-02)
SD-03 Open (Staples)
Ogden (SD-05)
Shapiro (SD-08)
Nelson (SD-12)
Janek (SD-17)
Averitt (SD-22)
Wentworth (SD-25)
I would like to emphasize that I am a complete amateur, so please take these rankings with an oversized grain of salt. But no one else I've seen has compiled a chart like this for the Texas State Senate or House, so I thought I might try to show people the bigger picture here. It really looks like the Republicans have 1 good opportunity to pick up a seat, while Democrats have 1 good opportunity, and 2 less-good opportunities. So the net change in the State Senate is likely to be anywhere from Republicans picking up 1 seat, to Democrats picking up 3 seats. With a current balance of 19 Reps to 12 Dems, we could end up anywhere from 20-11 to 16-15, but in all conceivable cases, Republicans appear set to hold on to control of the Texas State Senate.
UPDATE: SD-03 was mistakenly "Republican-Held Tossup" because I mistakenly thought a Democratic candidate was contesting the seat. My error was brought to my attention in the comments, and I have moved SD-03 to "Solid Republican Hold". As a result, Democrats seem to have only 2 less-good opportunities, while Republicans have an excellent opportunity to pick up SD-18.
posted by Abram | 12:45 PM
6 Comments:
Abram --
SD7 is very strongly Republican. I don't know that there are any Democrats alive who can even make the race close. It is an easy Republican hold.
SD18 is also heavily Republican (about 65% if memory serves). It's almost a certainty that this district will flip from D to R.
SD3 voted for Bush 71-29. It will stay Republican; I don't even think any Democrats filed.
The reason you haven't seen any State Senate rankings is because none of these races are expected to be competitive. All incumbents win, plus the GOP picks up SD18.
Thanks for the comment!
You're right about district 3. I misread the Democrats' filing info. Sadly, no Democrats have filed. The reason I have it as competetive is because of the Dewhurst/Sharp numbers from the Quorum Report. I believe Dewhurst got 57% there.
District 7 is much more Republican -- Dewhurst got 72% there. But, according to their website, Democrats have a candidate: F. Michael Kubosh.
And in District 18, while (again according to Quorum Report) Republican registration is at 63%, Dewhurst only got 52% of the vote, and Democrats and Republicans both have candidates this year.
I suppose I've never been that sure how to compare open seat competetiveness with incumbent competetiveness. Eltife is competetive on my list because he's a freshman and he won his seat with only 51.86% of the vote, according to the Texas Sec. of State website. Dewhurst got only 55% there too, but that's not a factor in my ranking because he got over 50%.
I could be using the wrong numbers to determine competetiveness, of course. It's just a theory I'm testing out because of the public availability of the data.
Anyway, thanks again for the input! I'll move SD-03 to Solid Republican Hold in a moment...
SD7 does have a Dem candidate, but like I said, I don't think there's a Democrat alive who could win that race.
SD18 -- Dewhurst's numbers are generally considered to be the bare minimum for a Republican candidate. Also, Dewhurst ran against John Sharp, who is from Victoria in SD18, and that's the only reason why Dewhurst was held so low in SD18. Also, the GOP candidates are more credible and thus will raise much more money.
SD1 is very unlikely to be competitive.
I think that draws a pretty good picture of how bleak things look for Democrats' chances to make gains in the State Senate, which is what I think the big picture truly is. As a Democrat, of course, I hope we're mistaken, or that a helpful national mood lifts Democrats' boats enough to squeak out a victory or two. But even that seems like a stretch.
Thanks for the insight!
Dems' chances are better in the House.
I agree. I just posted my House rankings on the front page. I'd love to hear what you think.
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