Texas State House Rankings 2006

All 150 House seats are up for election in 2006. Democrats have 63. Republicans have 87. That means to gain control, Democrats need to pick up 13 seats. At this point, that seems unlikely. Unlisted Representatives should be considered safe. Here are the rankings:


Likely Democratic
Homer (HD-003)
McReynolds (HD-012)
Ritter (HD-021)
Martinez (HD-039)
Gonzales (HD-041)
Rose (HD-045)
King (HD-080)
Veasey (HD-095)
Anchia (HD-103)
Martinez-Fischer (HD-116)
Leibowitz (HD-117)
Allen (HD-131)
Hernandez (HD-143)
HD-038 Open (Solis)

Leans Democratic
Frost (HD-001)
Hopson (HD-011)
Cook (HD-017)
Herrero (HD-034)
Toureilles (HD-035)
Strama (HD-050)
Farbee (HD-069)

Democratic-held Tossup
Vo (HD-149)
HD-085 Open (Laney)

Republican-held Tossup
HD-047 (Keel)
HD-048 (Baxter)

Leans Republican
Blake (HD-009)
Anderson (HD-056)
Hamnic (HD-126)
HD-054 Open (Hupp)
HD-106 Open (Allen)

Likely Republican
Morrison (HD-030)
Seaman (HD-032)
Orr (HD-058)
Phillips (HD-062)
Gooslby (HD-102)
Jackson (HD-115)
Wong (HD-134)
HD-071 Open (Hunter)
HD-091 Open (Griggs)
HD-126 Open (Hamnic)
HD-133 Open (Nixon)

The same disclaimers apply except for Open Seats. House Open Seats are, I suspect, a little bit harder to take because of their lower profile. I'm open to persuasion on this of course. But, for now, here are my criteria on open seats: If the party in power has less than 55% in the Dewhurst-Sharp numbers, the seat is a tossup. Less than 60%, Leans Hold, less than 65% Likely Hold, more than that, Safe Hold.